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Nat West and other UK banks
Phil 2
Posted: 28 April 2023 07:55:52(UTC)
#31

Joined: 20/07/2018(UTC)
Posts: 2,108

Please re-read the thread title.

This is absolutely Groundhog Day. There are forces at work that I don’t understand! Anyway I’ve bought another blob of these at 256p. Dollars on the sidewalk?!

What is going on here, it’s bonkers!!
Ian Eccles
Posted: 29 April 2023 04:29:05(UTC)
#37

Joined: 04/07/2021(UTC)
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Lloyds issue their Q1 trading statement on 3rd May, this will give the market something to compare the results of N.W. therefore may bolster their share price.
Watch the market on Wednesday.
1 user thanked Ian Eccles for this post.
Phil 2 on 29/04/2023(UTC)
MarkSp
Posted: 30 April 2023 08:58:09(UTC)
#32

Joined: 02/02/2020(UTC)
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Phil 2;265636 wrote:
Please re-read the thread title.

This is absolutely Groundhog Day. There are forces at work that I don’t understand! Anyway I’ve bought another blob of these at 256p. Dollars on the sidewalk?!

What is going on here, it’s bonkers!!


I think the issue is around NIMs
NW are losing deposits and will need to raise their rates to keep them
Loan rates are what the market says they are so will NIMs get squeezed.

It is a real struggle trying to find what interest rate they are paying for instant access savings but the overdraft rate is 40%

LLoyds are offering 0.85% gross/AER on balances from £1 - £24,999 for instant access and 40% for an OD

We will see how LLoyds deposits fared this week.
2 users thanked MarkSp for this post.
Phil 2 on 30/04/2023(UTC), Thrugelmir on 30/04/2023(UTC)
Thrugelmir
Posted: 30 April 2023 21:40:33(UTC)
#33

Joined: 01/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 5,317

MarkSp;265804 wrote:

NW are losing deposits and will need to raise their rates to keep them



Seems to be the elephant in the room. Not the same pressing issue as in the USA , but would result in UK banks both tightening their criteria and lending less. Are we in the throes of the start of a global liquidity squeeze?
Phil 2
Posted: 30 April 2023 22:37:20(UTC)
#34

Joined: 20/07/2018(UTC)
Posts: 2,108

Thrugelmir;265903 wrote:
MarkSp;265804 wrote:

NW are losing deposits and will need to raise their rates to keep them



Seems to be the elephant in the room. Not the same pressing issue as in the USA , but would result in UK banks both tightening their criteria and lending less. Are we in the throes of the start of a global liquidity squeeze?


How could anybody possibly arrive at that conclusion?!
Thrugelmir
Posted: 30 April 2023 22:43:33(UTC)
#35

Joined: 01/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 5,317

Phil 2;265905 wrote:
Thrugelmir;265903 wrote:
MarkSp;265804 wrote:

NW are losing deposits and will need to raise their rates to keep them



Seems to be the elephant in the room. Not the same pressing issue as in the USA , but would result in UK banks both tightening their criteria and lending less. Are we in the throes of the start of a global liquidity squeeze?


How could anybody possibly arrive at that conclusion?!


Basic banking principles. Fractional reserve banking. Banks operate on a leveraged basis.
Phil 2
Posted: 01 May 2023 09:15:52(UTC)
#36

Joined: 20/07/2018(UTC)
Posts: 2,108

Thrugelmir;265906 wrote:
Phil 2;265905 wrote:
Thrugelmir;265903 wrote:
MarkSp;265804 wrote:

NW are losing deposits and will need to raise their rates to keep them



Seems to be the elephant in the room. Not the same pressing issue as in the USA , but would result in UK banks both tightening their criteria and lending less. Are we in the throes of the start of a global liquidity squeeze?


How could anybody possibly arrive at that conclusion?!


Basic banking principles. Fractional reserve banking. Banks operate on a leveraged basis.


I think that when the market reacts in the way it has with NWG, slashing its SP by 6% for the second consecutive time following decent results, that the market has once again overreacted, out of fear for medium term prospects etc. I’m happy to take my chance that any squeezes and tightening won’t destroy anything like “6%” of NWG’s true value, particularly when it had already been devalued following the ongoing nonsense with US banks and CS.

But we’ll see. I’m taking my chances that NWG and others will see contracting NIMs in order to reverse the deposit declines, but that it will/should remain a money-making machine, as it was even when rates and margins were much lower.
Phil 2
Posted: 01 May 2023 09:29:17(UTC)
#38

Joined: 20/07/2018(UTC)
Posts: 2,108

Announced in the last hour…

JP Morgan is set to take over the troubled US bank First Republic in a deal brokered by regulators.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) confirmed in a statement that First Republic had collapsed on Monday.

Investment banking giant JP Morgan will now take on "all of the deposits and substantially all of the assets of First Republic Bank".

First Republic becomes the third major US bank to collapse in recent months.

The San Francisco-based lender's shares fell by more than 75% last week after it admitted that customers had withdrawn $100bn (£79.6bn) of deposits in March.

It follows on from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March, which prompted fears of a wider banking crisis.

That was swiftly followed by the demise of another US lender, Signature Bank.

A deposit flight from lenders has forced the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, to step in with emergency measures to stabilise financial markets.

In March, a group of America's biggest banks stepped forward to pump $30bn into First Republic in a bid to stabilise the business, but the efforts proved futile.

Founded in 1985, First Republic is a mid-sized US lender, similar to SVB.

For years, it has catered to wealthy clients - whose money was at risk before the takeover was announced after a weekend of negotiations.

In the US, FDIC insures customer deposits up to $250,000.

When Silicon Valley Bank and Signature collapsed, the FDIC said it would guarantee all deposits to prevent a rush of people trying to get their money out, which is known as a run on a bank.

As part of the First Republic agreement, it will share losses on loans with JP Morgan. The FDIC has estimated that its insurance fund would take a hit of about $13bn in the deal.

First Republic's 84 offices across eight states will also reopen as branches of JPMorgan Chase.
In Europe, banking giant Credit Suisse was bought by rival UBS in March, in a deal orchestrated by Swiss authorities.

As central banks around the world raised interest rates aggressively to dampen the rate of price rises, otherwise known as inflation, some lenders have come under pressure.

Increased interest rates have hurt the values of the large portfolios of bonds bought by banks when rates were lower.
4 users thanked Phil 2 for this post.
Sara G on 01/05/2023(UTC), Bimble on 01/05/2023(UTC), Evies Dad on 01/05/2023(UTC), Harry Trout on 01/05/2023(UTC)
MarkSp
Posted: 01 May 2023 13:13:35(UTC)
#39

Joined: 02/02/2020(UTC)
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What a dreadful deal full of risk says Jamie D. Given that he has bought a major bank with a very strong record on loan risk management and got a loss share agreement with the FIDC.......he would say that wouldn't he.
1 user thanked MarkSp for this post.
Phil 2 on 01/05/2023(UTC)
Phil 2
Posted: 01 May 2023 14:18:00(UTC)
#40

Joined: 20/07/2018(UTC)
Posts: 2,108

MarkSp;265938 wrote:
What a dreadful deal full of risk says Jamie D. Given that he has bought a major bank with a very strong record on loan risk management and got a loss share agreement with the FIDC.......he would say that wouldn't he.


Mark, he also said some much more positive stuff, according to CNBC?


The crisis that led to the downfall of three regional U.S. banks in recent weeks is largely over after the resolution of First Republic, according to JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon.

JPMorgan emerged as the winner of a weekend auction for First Republic after regulators decided that time had run out on a private sector solution. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation seized the bank and New York-based JPMorgan announced early Monday that it was acquiring nearly all of the deposits and most of the assets of First Republic.

“There are only so many banks that were offsides this way,” Dimon told analysts in a call shortly after the deal was announced.

“There may be another smaller one, but this pretty much resolves them all,” Dimon said. “This part of the crisis is over.”
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