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Investing from the charts
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 11 December 2023 18:13:45(UTC)
#12

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We need to know what the benchmark is.

If markets all rise in 2024 then a gain would not be an indicator of success as everyone would be 'up'.

So please can you state a benchmark that we could see whether or not you have outperformed.....
3 users thanked ANDREW FOSTER for this post.
Tim D on 11/12/2023(UTC), Dentmaster on 11/12/2023(UTC), Harry Trout on 01/02/2024(UTC)
ben ski
Posted: 11 December 2023 18:15:12(UTC)
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Joined: 15/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 1,357

Wave Action;289229 wrote:
Using technical analysis ( TA ) and fundamentals . Started this in the sub section as I don't want to clutter up the main board. Why not ? Everybody tries to time the market. On a daily basis there's posts buying IT's trading at a discount , others just taking a punt and some just topping up. I use the tea leaves and have done for years. I'm not day trading as I couldn't but I trade short term in an ISA and SIPP.
My set up isn't perfect as nothing is but it can be rewarding . I use a few simple indicators and moving averages in an attempt to ride the waves. Normally ETF's which track the indices such as UK , US , Europe and Japan. Throw in a few UK shares and that's it. My benchmark is the MSCI World Index as a global tracker. It's the easiest DIY way to set and forget and go down the pub . Very good track record since launch in 1969 and currently 10% PA. Not many funds can manage that over time.
I'll throw in a few links about the economy along the way just to add a bit of commentary. Rates, inflation, growth prospects, that kind of stuff. Here goes I'll run it until end of 2024 then it can be judged . Good luck everybody.


Marty Schwartz clocked up one of the best trading records in history just trading the S&P500 (afaik) with a short-term EMA crossover.

The thing I'd say is, if you're using real money – or intend to make real money – you have to backtest properly.. Jesse Livermore commented that people will spend longer researching a secondhand car purchase than they will a stock market investment – which is insane. People have incredibly poor money instincts.. So (imo) if you're not willing to learn Python/C++/Pytorch/Eigen, and really have a good understanding of stochastics and data analytics, you're going to be lightyears behind the average, fresh-faced quant employed by banks and hedge funds these days, who still struggle to generate appealing returns.
Wave Action
Posted: 11 December 2023 19:03:03(UTC)
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ANDREW FOSTER;289248 wrote:
We need to know what the benchmark is.

If markets all rise in 2024 then a gain would not be an indicator of success as everyone would be 'up'.

So please can you state a benchmark that we could see whether or not you have outperformed.....


I'll call the FTSE 100 and the SP500 if you want to keep it simple. They can be easily listed in columns as buy and sell and points gained or lost.
If it's shares they'll be from the FTSE and proceeds will be added to the next purchase. Again I'll list them as I go.
1 user thanked Wave Action for this post.
Ben's dad on 11/12/2023(UTC)
Dentmaster
Posted: 11 December 2023 21:24:42(UTC)
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Should be interesting. Will watch this thread
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Wave Action on 11/12/2023(UTC)
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 11 December 2023 22:32:13(UTC)
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Wave Action;289252 wrote:
ANDREW FOSTER;289248 wrote:
We need to know what the benchmark is.

If markets all rise in 2024 then a gain would not be an indicator of success as everyone would be 'up'.

So please can you state a benchmark that we could see whether or not you have outperformed.....


I'll call the FTSE 100 and the SP500 if you want to keep it simple. They can be easily listed in columns as buy and sell and points gained or lost.
If it's shares they'll be from the FTSE and proceeds will be added to the next purchase. Again I'll list them as I go.


Meh... multiple benchmarks doesn't really work. You can't have a situation where you beat one and fail to beat another. What can one draw from that?

I'd suggest a global equity fund if equities is what you are going to buy/sell.

VWRL Vanguard All-World would be a good one perhaps. Or a simple Accumulating S&P tracker like HSBC American Index.

But like 'Highlander', there can be only one... ;-)
ben ski
Posted: 11 December 2023 22:41:24(UTC)
#18

Joined: 15/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 1,357

You also can't gauge anything from a single year.. There'll be a sector or asset class that does extremely well in 2024, and you might be in it by luck – or you might be in it by following a trend; but then get whipsawed, or catch a lot of downside, or fail to catch the upside on the next trend.. And it's hard enough back-fitting good trend strategies.

There really is nothing inherently wrong with chartism. Anomalies in price trends have persisted, and are arguably stronger than anomalies in fundamentals. But the game you're playing in trading charts is one that keeps evolving by the very fact people are playing it, and if you can't answer why you've got 'edge', then it's just going to be a learning experience
Anthony French
Posted: 12 December 2023 06:42:54(UTC)
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Big boy;289244 wrote:
Anthony French;289239 wrote:
Anyone who doesn't look at a chart, hasn't heard of machine trading.
Where it wouldn't buy a share if it fell by ten percent, although
it might short but might buy if a share rises by ten percent.



Now I understand why most investors underperform......It seem chartists buy at the top and sell at the bottom.....long may it continue as makes our job easier..



.........................

oh dear
1 user thanked Anthony French for this post.
Big boy on 13/12/2023(UTC)
Anthony French
Posted: 12 December 2023 08:07:37(UTC)
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Small top up of AAL at about 1830p earlier today.

An actual buy, I'll post the price when it's a buy from the chart.
Could well be higher but a lot less stressful.

Anthony French
Posted: 12 December 2023 08:18:51(UTC)
#20

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AAL

Shares, which plunged 19 per cent in the previous session, fell 0.8 per cent, or 13.6p, to 1789p, after a hat-trick of broker downgrades.


Negative news.
Anthony French
Posted: 12 December 2023 10:35:17(UTC)
#21

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William J O'Neil provides an answer, in a trend work out the
percentage of the retrace, he recommends never giving back more
than 8%, with a small cap u would need more.
Trading tip.
Buy one of his books, he uses a cup and handle as his
time to look to buy but it's only a breakout signal.
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