Funds Insider - Opening the door to funds

Welcome to the Citywire Funds Insider Forums, where members share investment ideas and discuss everything to do with their money.

You'll need to log in or set up an account to start new discussions or reply to existing ones. See you inside!

Notification

Icon
Error
Bank of Georgia
+ Reply to discussion
Options
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 03 May 2024 15:25:22(UTC)
#29

Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 8,101

Thanks: 11340 times
Was thanked: 18200 time(s) in 5967 post(s)
Johan De Silva;304566 wrote:
ANDREW FOSTER;304564 wrote:
Johan De Silva;303596 wrote:
The blur -The forum cannot predict short-term share price movements. This stock may continue on trend as long as interest rates are not aggressively cut or if the West continues to escalate tensions with Putin by encroaching on historically neutral territories.


I rather think it's Mr. Putin doing the encroaching....with half a million troops, tanks, cruise missiles destroying lives and cities...🤔

But somehow that's the Wests fault?

Not a fault, its Putins fault, but it is the reason... Looking at it from Putin’s perspective, he sees Europe expanding its influence through democratic means. Additionally, Europe tends to follow U.S. directives due to their NATO alliance. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for making informed decisions rather than following only the western news including the BBC that I respect.


Then I'm puzzled by the lanuguage of ' encroaching on historically neutral territories'

Ukraine has never been 'neutral', it was pro Russian and chose to switch to pro-European. It has free choice to do that and doesn't need Putin's permission.

As for Georgia, it might well overtrhrow it's pro-Russian government, violently or otherwise, jusdging by current events. That might trigger Russian invasion/occupation there too, I'm sure it's been modelled at the Kremlin.

That would be the end for Bank of Georgia, as it was for various Russian Bank shares in 2022.

Makes it a super high risk play iMHO.


Back to top Quote
1 user thanked ANDREW FOSTER for this post.
Mostly Retired on 03/05/2024(UTC)
Johan De Silva
Posted: 03 May 2024 16:35:38(UTC)
#33

Joined: 22/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 4,412
Andrew you may well be right on my poorly worded semantics, Georgia is known to be neutral and this shift seems newish, but the premise stands and I think we aligning on the the investment case here is too risky, I have increasingly come to that conclusion and count my trade here down to luck.

For everyone, the hedge for higher rate investments I have as an alternative:
1) ALPH (barbell between operational profit vs interest rate gains)
2) HSBC (tilted to benefit from high rates)
3) WISE (net cash, but very dependent on high rates)

A switch or partial switch away to these could be considered.
Back to top Quote
 |  Edit by user
The blur
Posted: 03 May 2024 16:36:35(UTC)
#32

Joined: 10/10/2020(UTC)
Posts: 45

Thanks: 5 times
Was thanked: 34 time(s) in 21 post(s)
Newbie;304605 wrote:
Well having topped up yesterday, I have been rear ended pretty badly today.
Being a glutter for punishment, I topped up a small amount today
Larger amount is reserved for CGEO which I have a smaller holding in.
Today this feels like the plays in 5SPY and 5QQQ though not as confident to go in more big.


It's definitely interesting seeing the news at the moment, the bank itself is undervalued for sure but if the government follows the current course of action it's basically going to kill off it's own economy through sanctions and such, madness.

Super risky but if it blows over could be interesting
Back to top Quote
1 user thanked The blur for this post.
Newbie on 03/05/2024(UTC)
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 03 May 2024 18:57:43(UTC)
#34

Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 8,101

Thanks: 11340 times
Was thanked: 18200 time(s) in 5967 post(s)
Johan De Silva;304629 wrote:
Andrew you may well be right on my poorly worded semantics, Georgia is known to be neutral and this shift seems newish, but the premise stands and I think we aligning on the the investment case here is too risky, I have increasingly come to that conclusion and count my trade here down to luck.

For everyone, the hedge for higher rate investments I have as an alternative:
1) ALPH (barbell between operational profit vs interest rate gains)
2) HSBC (tilted to benefit from high rates)
3) WISE (net cash, but very dependent on high rates)

A switch or partial switch away to these could be considered.


Georgia is a candidate country for EU membership.

It also voted in favour of moving towards NATO membership.

Neither can be seen as 'neutral' at all, it's very definitely aligning itself to the West.

What happened when Ukraine did the similar?

This is playing with fire IMHO
Back to top Quote
2 users thanked ANDREW FOSTER for this post.
Tim D on 03/05/2024(UTC), Mostly Retired on 03/05/2024(UTC)
John Bran
Posted: 14 May 2024 13:54:43(UTC)
#35

Joined: 01/09/2017(UTC)
Posts: 2,125
Bank of Georgia Roughly a 4% fall today.
Final reading of new law.
Punch ups in Parliament.
Thousands outside demonstrating.
EU says law won’t be conducive to them getting EU membership.
Maybe playing upto the Russophiles in their midst and of course Russia itself.
I suspect it will blow over but when?
Back to top Quote
D Bergman
Posted: 14 May 2024 14:18:03(UTC)
#37

Joined: 22/03/2018(UTC)
Posts: 1,308
John Bran;305863 wrote:
Bank of Georgia Roughly a 4% fall today.
Final reading of new law.
Punch ups in Parliament.
Thousands outside demonstrating.
EU says law won’t be conducive to them getting EU membership.
Maybe playing upto the Russophiles in their midst and of course Russia itself.
I suspect it will blow over but when?


Why do you think it will blow over?

What would happen if the president tries to fire the prime minister?
Or the prime minister "uncovers" a "plot" to overthrow the government, and appeals for help from Mother Russia?

Personally, I think that only the fact that Putin's forces are tied up in Ukraine may save Georgia.
Back to top Quote
 |  Edit by user
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 14 May 2024 14:43:14(UTC)
#36

Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 8,101

Thanks: 11340 times
Was thanked: 18200 time(s) in 5967 post(s)
John Bran;305863 wrote:
Bank of Georgia Roughly a 4% fall today.
Final reading of new law.
Punch ups in Parliament.
Thousands outside demonstrating.
EU says law won’t be conducive to them getting EU membership.
Maybe playing upto the Russophiles in their midst and of course Russia itself.
I suspect it will blow over but when?


The protests are huge if you watch the drone videos

Euromaiden class event incoming in 3...2...1.....

I don't hold but if I did I'd likely be reading the tealeaves
Back to top Quote
Newbie
Posted: 14 May 2024 14:49:48(UTC)
#40

Joined: 31/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 3,816
D Bergman;305866 wrote:
John Bran;305863 wrote:
Bank of Georgia Roughly a 4% fall today.
Final reading of new law.
Punch ups in Parliament.
Thousands outside demonstrating.
EU says law won’t be conducive to them getting EU membership.
Maybe playing upto the Russophiles in their midst and of course Russia itself.
I suspect it will blow over but when?


Why do you think it will blow over?

What would happen if the president tries to fire the prime minister?
Or the prime minister "uncovers" a "plot" to overthrow the government, and appeals for help from Mother Russia?

Personally, I think that only the fact that Putin's forces are tied up in Ukraine may save Georgia.

Ukraine V2 in terms of politics.
NATO dangles carrot - Politicians get excited - people start riots - USA or Russia jumps in to bring some kind of order- Result Georgia FUBAR-red.
Back to top Quote
John Bran
Posted: 14 May 2024 20:43:53(UTC)
#38

Joined: 01/09/2017(UTC)
Posts: 2,125
D Bergman;305866 wrote:
John Bran;305863 wrote:
Bank of Georgia Roughly a 4% fall today.
Final reading of new law.
Punch ups in Parliament.
Thousands outside demonstrating.
EU says law won’t be conducive to them getting EU membership.
Maybe playing upto the Russophiles in their midst and of course Russia itself.
I suspect it will blow over but when?


Why do you think it will blow over?

What would happen if the president tries to fire the prime minister?
Or the prime minister "uncovers" a "plot" to overthrow the government, and appeals for help from Mother Russia?

Personally, I think that only the fact that Putin's forces are tied up in Ukraine may save Georgia.


Your assumption that they see Russia as mother Russia is ludicrous.
They are trying to join the EU and NATO.
The president cannot fire the prime minister. The president has very limited powers more or less a figure head.
Putin's force were not tied up in Ukraine 2 years ago why didn't he invade then. In fact he has invaded and retreated.
Again as I said it will blow over the when is the big question.
Also can the dream party win the next election?
Back to top Quote
 |  Edit by user
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 14 May 2024 21:44:18(UTC)
#39

Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 8,101

Thanks: 11340 times
Was thanked: 18200 time(s) in 5967 post(s)
John Bran;305900 wrote:
D Bergman;305866 wrote:
John Bran;305863 wrote:
Bank of Georgia Roughly a 4% fall today.
Final reading of new law.
Punch ups in Parliament.
Thousands outside demonstrating.
EU says law won’t be conducive to them getting EU membership.
Maybe playing upto the Russophiles in their midst and of course Russia itself.
I suspect it will blow over but when?


Why do you think it will blow over?

What would happen if the president tries to fire the prime minister?
Or the prime minister "uncovers" a "plot" to overthrow the government, and appeals for help from Mother Russia?

Personally, I think that only the fact that Putin's forces are tied up in Ukraine may save Georgia.


Your assumption that they see Russia as mother Russia is ludicrous.
They are trying to join the EU and NATO.
The president cannot fire the prime minister. The president has very limited powers more or less a figure head.
Putin's force were not tied up in Ukraine 2 years ago why didn't he invade then. In fact he has invaded and retreated.
Again as I said it will blow over the when is the big question.
Also can the dream party win the next election?


If it ticks over into revolution, as Ukraine did, then the 'rules' don't apply and people start falling out of windows.

Confidence that it will all blow over is just guesswork and hope.

Anything can happen and possibly at very short notice.

There is some suggestion that there is a deliberate attempt to stir up trouble, and anti Russian sentiment in particular, to pressure the Russian draft dodgers there to return to Russia.
Back to top Quote
7 Pages«Previous page23456Next page»
+ Reply to discussion

Markets

Other markets