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A grown-up, dispassionate assessment of Brexit
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Wave Action
Posted: 01 September 2024 08:06:10(UTC)
#1687

Joined: 30/11/2023(UTC)
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Not as bad as some want it to be then ..?



Europe here...

https://tradingeconomics...growth?continent=europe

A bit more which didn't turn out correct.? There was no slump.



and updated from 2016 where UK is upgraded. UK is in with the EU pack so no better or worse ? Only highlighting what I find. I haven't got the answer .

https://pbs.twimg.com/me...t=webp&name=900x900

https://i.postimg.cc/bvXjvkgq/image.webp

https://pbs.twimg.com/me...at=jpg&name=900x900

https://www.business-liv...sector-soars-26-29852058
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2 users thanked Wave Action for this post.
Jay P on 02/09/2024(UTC), Alex Peard on 02/09/2024(UTC)
Laurence O'Brien
Posted: 01 September 2024 14:39:27(UTC)
#1682

Joined: 04/12/2014(UTC)
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Robert D;317642 wrote:
ANDREW FOSTER;317637 wrote:


It's too late.

The UK isn't a place worth fighting for anymore. It's gone past the tipping point.

All we have ahead is poorly managed decline.



Not true but certainly not helped by leaving the EU - probably the biggest act of self-harm ever inflicted on the British economy


In your opinion.

BTW - you never did reply to my question why you think the UK is an international pariah. Please enlighten us.
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2 users thanked Laurence O'Brien for this post.
stephen_s on 01/09/2024(UTC), Jay P on 01/09/2024(UTC)
Tim D
Posted: 02 September 2024 10:05:04(UTC)
#1688

Joined: 07/06/2017(UTC)
Posts: 8,883
Wave Action;317654 wrote:




That chart makes me think:
1. Most folks on here are well aware that when it comes to charts, start date can make a lot of difference. The UK had a worse GFC experience than most, so any chart from the depths of the hit to the economy could look very good.
2. Any time the topic of GDP comes up, folks pile on to point out that the UK's has been pumped up by immigration... and that GDP per capita is a better measure of citizens' personal experience of the economy.

So I took a look at the OECD's GDP-per-capita data ("US $, current prices, current PPPs") from 2008 to 2023. OECD "data explorer" site too painful to get a normalized chart, but from the numbers I get (ranked):

Germany +80.4%
France +74.7%
Italy +65.8%
UK +60.4%
Spain +59.3%

Not such a pretty picture.
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ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 02 September 2024 10:24:44(UTC)
#1689

Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
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Tim D;317729 wrote:
[

That chart makes me think:
1. Most folks on here are well aware that when it comes to charts, start date can make a lot of difference. The UK had a worse GFC experience than most, so any chart from the depths of the hit to the economy could look very good.
2. Any time the topic of GDP comes up, folks pile on to point out that the UK's has been pumped up by immigration... and that GDP per capita is a better measure of citizens' personal experience of the economy.

So I took a look at the OECD's GDP-per-capita data ("US $, current prices, current PPPs") from 2008 to 2023. OECD "data explorer" site too painful to get a normalized chart, but from the numbers I get (ranked):

Germany +80.4%
France +74.7%
Italy +65.8%
UK +60.4%
Spain +59.3%

Not such a pretty picture.


When in 2008...? Choosing Jan 1st or December 31st would likely give a huge difference, since 2008 eclipses the GFC drops itself Particularly this affects the forex Pound/Dollar rate that changed by around 25% over that period and since you are measuring GDP in US Dollars thats highly significant.

I would choose 2007, before the GFC happened, in order to remove that as a factor.

But also, of course, I have to point out that 13 of the 16 years you are citing the UK was in the EU. So you are really saying that the UK performance was dismal while it was a member.

Well OK, I guess I won't disagree with that.... ;-)

The baseline has to be the date we left for comparison purposes, otherwise the presentation of a period 75% of which we were a member has little utility.
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Jay P on 02/09/2024(UTC)
Rookie Investor
Posted: 02 September 2024 10:45:26(UTC)
#1690

Joined: 09/12/2020(UTC)
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ANDREW FOSTER;317732 wrote:
Tim D;317729 wrote:
[

That chart makes me think:
1. Most folks on here are well aware that when it comes to charts, start date can make a lot of difference. The UK had a worse GFC experience than most, so any chart from the depths of the hit to the economy could look very good.
2. Any time the topic of GDP comes up, folks pile on to point out that the UK's has been pumped up by immigration... and that GDP per capita is a better measure of citizens' personal experience of the economy.

So I took a look at the OECD's GDP-per-capita data ("US $, current prices, current PPPs") from 2008 to 2023. OECD "data explorer" site too painful to get a normalized chart, but from the numbers I get (ranked):

Germany +80.4%
France +74.7%
Italy +65.8%
UK +60.4%
Spain +59.3%

Not such a pretty picture.


When in 2008...? Choosing Jan 1st or December 31st would likely give a huge difference, since 2008 eclipses the GFC drops itself Particularly this affects the forex Pound/Dollar rate that changed by around 25% over that period and since you are measuring GDP in US Dollars thats highly significant.

I would choose 2007, before the GFC happened, in order to remove that as a factor.

But also, of course, I have to point out that 13 of the 16 years you are citing the UK was in the EU. So you are really saying that the UK performance was dismal while it was a member.

Well OK, I guess I won't disagree with that.... ;-)

The baseline has to be the date we left for comparison purposes, otherwise the presentation of a period 75% of which we were a member has little utility.



The comparison is fair because it is using PPP rates to convert to GDP in USD terms.
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Tim D on 02/09/2024(UTC)
Tim D
Posted: 02 September 2024 11:33:46(UTC)
#1691

Joined: 07/06/2017(UTC)
Posts: 8,883
I used 2008 because that was the last number increasing (all countries) before a drop (all countries) in 2009.

But using GDP-per-capita 2007-2023 I get
Germany +88.1%
France +79.8%
Italy +72.3%
UK +65.8%
Spain +63.1%

And for 2020-2023 I get
Spain +35.8%
Italy +32.4%
France +24.3%
UK +22.7%
Germany +19.7%

Hmmm... the UK is at least a consistent performer in the ranking order even as the other countries move around!

However it looks to me that when OECD give data for a year, it must be for the year end because there's a run up to 2019 (all countries), and then a drop in 2020 (presumably the Covid hit).
So using 2019-2023 I get
Italy +25.9%
Spain +21.0%
France +20.3%
Germany +19.0%
UK +18.0%

Ouch!
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3 users thanked Tim D for this post.
ANDREW FOSTER on 02/09/2024(UTC), Rookie Investor on 02/09/2024(UTC), Jay P on 02/09/2024(UTC)
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 02 September 2024 12:52:15(UTC)
#1693

Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
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Thanks for that detail Tim..

So it seems that the UK is a poor performer both during its time IN the EU and OUT. Who knew..

That doesn't surprise me at all to be honest.

It seems way harder than it should be to get precise, current population data. This sort of stuff should be available and updated on a daily basis, and yet it isn't.
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3 users thanked ANDREW FOSTER for this post.
Rookie Investor on 02/09/2024(UTC), Tim D on 02/09/2024(UTC), Jay P on 02/09/2024(UTC)
Rookie Investor
Posted: 02 September 2024 12:59:49(UTC)
#1694

Joined: 09/12/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,088

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My guess is that at least part of the explanation of poor relative GDP numbers is we are importing human capital not fit for purpose for the economic good of this country.
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1 user thanked Rookie Investor for this post.
Jay P on 02/09/2024(UTC)
Thrugelmir
Posted: 02 September 2024 13:17:04(UTC)
#1680

Joined: 01/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 5,331
ANDREW FOSTER;317647 wrote:
Thrugelmir;317645 wrote:


Now that the Russian energy taps have been turned off. Germany which in the 90's was the sick man of Europe. Is again in economic decline. Heavy manufacturing is energy intensive. Cheaper now to produce elsewhere. Merkel never planned for a fall out. Over reliance is now costing them dearly.

US onshoring has been estimated to result in price increases of between 30% - 40%. Protectionism comes at a hefty price.


But it doesn't matter if goods are 30% more expensive when there are manufacturing workers now paying taxes plus improved balance of trade plus more workers employed and hence a lower benefit bill.




Makes you wonder why manufacturing was ever shifted en masse to China in the first place. If it doesn't matter.
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ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 02 September 2024 13:44:34(UTC)
#1681

Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
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Thrugelmir;317762 wrote:


Makes you wonder why manufacturing was ever shifted en masse to China in the first place. If it doesn't matter.


Because manufacturers only look at their own economic performance, whereas a government looks at the whole country economy.

What makes sense for a manufacturer doesn't necessarily make sense for the country.
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1 user thanked ANDREW FOSTER for this post.
Tim D on 04/09/2024(UTC)
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