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Is now the time to take profits?
Thrugelmir
Posted: 24 January 2025 00:12:38(UTC)
#53

Joined: 01/06/2012(UTC)
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Newbie;332075 wrote:

On a tangent - We are now in a phase of buybacks in the US (supposedly the mother of all likely to be this year), and this is likely to affect the shareprice and similarly within the coming weeks some of those stocks will again be released into the markets which will again affect the share prices (how do you crunch the numbers about the real price during that spell)


Management executive share schemes are rife in the US. Some are beginning to question who management teams actually work for. Themselves or shareholders. As there's plenty of jiggery-pokery as to how remuneration based share issuance is accounted for through the published accounts. With CEO's announcing buy backs yet the issued share capital doesn't really change is increasing. Resulting in shareholders being diluted. Classic case of smoke and mirrors with CFO's at the helm.

Far less rigid corporate governance and company law in this regard in the US than the UK.
2 users thanked Thrugelmir for this post.
SF100 on 24/01/2025(UTC), Jay P on 24/01/2025(UTC)
Mr GL
Posted: 24 January 2025 07:13:58(UTC)
#50

Joined: 18/10/2020(UTC)
Posts: 5,124

ben ski;332078 wrote:
Newbie;332075 wrote:
I thought the share price can be influenced if one can analyse the options market and take positions based on it.


Yep. The options market is public, whereas spread-betting is private and OTC. Spread-betting firms can hedge with underlying securities where moves risk not being covered by counterparties. But in the case of an asset that isn't available to short, where they want to hedge shorts, they'd primarily be matching counterparties.


so - where they need to hedge with underlying securities - this can effect listed prices (because of, you know, supply and demand)

and here you are saying spread bets have no effect on market prices

ben ski;332063 wrote:
Mr GL;331989 wrote:

[waffle]


They have no effect. I don't care if you don't know how spread betting works..



this latest little spat started here...

Mr GL;331740 wrote:
ben ski;331726 wrote:

And you can't generally short ITs. If you spreadbet on an IT, you're only in a derivative contract with another trader. It doesn't move the price.]


I believe SABA 'own' a lot of the investments trusts they are targeting via CFDs. / spread bets .... now I am not sure how these differ but I am damm sure that their counterparties on these positions will need to enter the 'real' market to hedge their risk and so 'selling' (wether to close out a long or establish a short risk position) will need to be hedged... as to to wether these transactions move prices I will leave that to you to wax lyrical on...
...



so many posts and you end up agreeing with the first post I made about this.... that spreadbetting firms will hedge their market risk exposure via the listed markets as and when they chose to - I used SABAs recent activity as an example - (and yes - this will be more likely if they dont have offsetting other trades on their books - I do understand a little about market making and net exposures etc despite Lodos consistently wanting to portray me as an idiot who doesnt understand how markets work)....

and BECAUSE these hedges can effect you know, supply and demand, this can effect prices...

maybe start to play nice and stop your constant rubbishing of anyone who offers an opinion that challenges your absolutist statement, put aside your quest to be right all the time, admit you get things wrong blah blah.... (or just f off... again)
ben ski
Posted: 24 January 2025 19:28:06(UTC)
#51

Joined: 15/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 1,357

Mr GL;332083 wrote:
your quest to be right all the time


Sure. And no, you're grasping at straws. Rookie's basically on the money with this.

RT7
Posted: 24 January 2025 21:04:55(UTC)
#56

Joined: 18/12/2023(UTC)
Posts: 47

To Johan De Sliva

You asked "Is spread betting the same as shorting?"

(short) Answer, is no.

To add to what others have said, you can spread "bet" (clue is in the name !), and bet on something going up or down in value. To keep it simple for you, if you bet on shares going down - you buy a short, if you bet on shares going up, you buy long.

If you are holding long shares, you receive dividend when due/payable, if you are short, then you are liable for the dividend.

Some folk use Spread betting (long bets) after they have filled their ISA allowance for the year. Betting winnings are tax free.
mdss68
Posted: 24 January 2025 21:13:49(UTC)
#52

Joined: 20/09/2018(UTC)
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.
1 user thanked mdss68 for this post.
Big boy on 25/01/2025(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 24 January 2025 23:18:33(UTC)
#60

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,676



“Is now the time to take profits “


Mr GL
Posted: 25 January 2025 08:59:40(UTC)
#57

Joined: 18/10/2020(UTC)
Posts: 5,124

RT7;332167 wrote:
To Johan De Sliva

You asked "Is spread betting the same as shorting?"

(short) Answer, is no.

To add to what others have said, you can spread "bet" (clue is in the name !), and bet on something going up or down in value. To keep it simple for you, if you bet on shares going down - you buy a short, if you bet on shares going up, you buy long.

If you are holding long shares, you receive dividend when due/payable, if you are short, then you are liable for the dividend.

Some folk use Spread betting (long bets) after they have filled their ISA allowance for the year. Betting winnings are tax free.


what happens to the price of a spread bet if you have gone short a 5% dividend payer and you are short over the ex-dividend date? I am not 100% sure of the answer but I think the spreadbet then needs to 'manufacture' a dividend and so those who are long risk over the divided date receive cash and those short over dividend date are debited some cash - IF this does not happen I'd love to know why as it would seem there is an interesting dividend arbitrage here. Oh wait - I remember now - when we used to own equity positions in our fund we owned them via total return swaps - this meant we could avoid the UK tax treatment on the cash flows around dividend payment date (I think that's right - it has been along time). As total return swap - similar to a CFD - is not the same as a spread bet but again I am pretty sure that the economics of holding risk this way has to signifanctly match that of the underlying

if you are short via a spread bet and the listed shares fall 20% will the spread bet fall 20% or will the price do its own thing regardless of what the listed shares do?

From what I understand (and bearing in mind I am an idiot who doesnt understand how markets work) the intention behind a spread bet is to as far as possible match the economic outcomes of being long / short the actual underlying shares. The spread bet will need to take account of cost of funding, financing, dividend flows, rights issues, consolidations etc.

Further - I know there is a difference between a contract for difference (CFD - AKA equity swap) and a spread bet in terms of tax treatment versus a position in a listed equity.

So going 'short' via a spread bet is not the same as going short the equity - but it SHOULD roughly correspond / match the economics of shorting the underlying after taking account of the spread bet costs (bit/offer, financing etc). with a bet you only need to 'fund' the margin - you dont have to put up the full cost of the risk - but the spread bet firm will account for this in their charges etc they debit you for holing the positions.

MarkSp
Posted: 25 January 2025 10:11:55(UTC)
#58

Joined: 02/02/2020(UTC)
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Mr GL;332188 wrote:
RT7;332167 wrote:
To Johan De Sliva

You asked "Is spread betting the same as shorting?"

(short) Answer, is no.

To add to what others have said, you can spread "bet" (clue is in the name !), and bet on something going up or down in value. To keep it simple for you, if you bet on shares going down - you buy a short, if you bet on shares going up, you buy long.

If you are holding long shares, you receive dividend when due/payable, if you are short, then you are liable for the dividend.

Some folk use Spread betting (long bets) after they have filled their ISA allowance for the year. Betting winnings are tax free.


what happens to the price of a spread bet if you have gone short a 5% dividend payer and you are short over the ex-dividend date? I am not 100% sure of the answer but I think the spreadbet then needs to 'manufacture' a dividend and so those who are long risk over the divided date receive cash and those short over dividend date are debited some cash - IF this does not happen I'd love to know why as it would seem there is an interesting dividend arbitrage here. Oh wait - I remember now - when we used to own equity positions in our fund we owned them via total return swaps - this meant we could avoid the UK tax treatment on the cash flows around dividend payment date (I think that's right - it has been along time). As total return swap - similar to a CFD - is not the same as a spread bet but again I am pretty sure that the economics of holding risk this way has to signifanctly match that of the underlying

if you are short via a spread bet and the listed shares fall 20% will the spread bet fall 20% or will the price do its own thing regardless of what the listed shares do?

From what I understand (and bearing in mind I am an idiot who doesnt understand how markets work) the intention behind a spread bet is to as far as possible match the economic outcomes of being long / short the actual underlying shares. The spread bet will need to take account of cost of funding, financing, dividend flows, rights issues, consolidations etc.

Further - I know there is a difference between a contract for difference (CFD - AKA equity swap) and a spread bet in terms of tax treatment versus a position in a listed equity.

So going 'short' via a spread bet is not the same as going short the equity - but it SHOULD roughly correspond / match the economics of shorting the underlying after taking account of the spread bet costs (bit/offer, financing etc). with a bet you only need to 'fund' the margin - you dont have to put up the full cost of the risk - but the spread bet firm will account for this in their charges etc they debit you for holing the positions.



Whether you are long/short of SB/CFD, your account is adjusted for the dividend on XD date. If you are long you are credited, if short, you are debited. With most companies you get full value either way. There are some shysters who debit 100% on short positions and credit <100% on longs so check who you are dancing with.

SBs have no CGT liability, CFDs do.

there are strategies you can follow where shorting increases your safety eg taking a short SB against a long equity position if you have had a big upward price spike or....collars and cuffs. I usually tell anyone who asks - be very very careful being short especially in a rising market and especially on single stocks.

It is no accident that 85% of short strats houses have closed in the last 4 years - Hindenberg Reseach shut up shop last week.








1 user thanked MarkSp for this post.
Mr GL on 25/01/2025(UTC)
Newbie
Posted: 25 January 2025 13:05:07(UTC)
#59

Joined: 31/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 3,816

MarkSp;332196 wrote:

Hindenberg Reseach shut up shop last week.

The Adani case put the final nail in their coffin
HIndenberg were targetting big players which is a smart prison yard tactic as depicted in movies
However, some of those entities have deep pockets, a fan base, and powerful allies and contacts which runs beyond mere investors is an element Hindenburg overlooked.
Inevitably this is likely to lead to a situation where such entities can fight longer than you can breathe.
If you play dirty - expect your opponent to do the same.
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