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ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 02 February 2025 13:05:13(UTC)
#31

Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 8,120
Rookie Investor;332954 wrote:
Johan De Silva;332951 wrote:
Hang on with those posts above, Trump does have a plan! He is looking to remove income tax and the import tariff will help play for this Here is how.... with manufacturing being attracted into the US it should be a win and yes it will take time like a decade. It will be inflationary as the US consumer pays for it and when income TAX removed they can afford it. I guess the market may not realise this on Monday... and may just see Ford and GM crash and follow.

In the very long run smaller companies flooding back into the US could be a boom for the Russell 2000. Tomorrow, not so much, sadly possibly a sharp pull back in smaller companies.

I am not saying this is all going to work... he has bankrupt 7 companies (I can see Gold jump), but the point is he does have a plan.


US domestic focused equities obviously better.

Long Berkshire, US smaller caps (BASC), companies with monopoly or duopoly that serve the US and international (US big tech, Boeing, Visa). Also bought Hersheys recently which derives large majority of its revenues in the US.

Long US, make America greater again only game in town, everything else is shit.


Domestic US will be hit by stoking US inflation, tariffs on imported raw materials.

US consumers aren't going to stop buying imported goods because in many cases there simply aren't US made alternatives, let alone at Asian prices.

US made TV? Phones? Jeans? Solar Panels? Aircon?

And retaliatory tariffs will make US exports suffer.

Its just bad all round however I look at it...

The only positive will be stronger Dollar providing a brief boost to existing US investments.




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Raj K
Posted: 02 February 2025 13:08:11(UTC)
#33

Joined: 22/04/2016(UTC)
Posts: 2,819

Thanks: 6461 times
Was thanked: 6656 time(s) in 2091 post(s)
We should be excited by Trumps antics, hopefully it will mean accumulators can add to good quality stocks/trusts and funds at lower prices...whats not to like.... ignore the noise, use the time to work out what you'd like to own and then either regular invest or execute larger sums when/if the world melts down.

Personally i am continuing to build up Fairfax Financial as they are throwing of a lot of cash/compared to market cap. Is a complex company to understand but getting my head around it all slowly. The company is of a much higher quality then it was five years ago and i think they have a good duration on their fixed income investments. Insurance is doing well, they have moved quite a bit form listed equity to private company ownership too. I kind of like having the trio of Berkshire, Markel and Fairfax

Also woud like big tech to crash but not sure it will so will take a view of regular investing and hold some cash for any big drawdowns.
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4 users thanked Raj K for this post.
Rookie Investor on 02/02/2025(UTC), Johan De Silva on 02/02/2025(UTC), Jay P on 02/02/2025(UTC), stephen_s on 03/02/2025(UTC)
Rookie Investor
Posted: 02 February 2025 13:10:18(UTC)
#32

Joined: 09/12/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,087
ANDREW FOSTER;332958 wrote:
Rookie Investor;332954 wrote:
Johan De Silva;332951 wrote:
Hang on with those posts above, Trump does have a plan! He is looking to remove income tax and the import tariff will help play for this Here is how.... with manufacturing being attracted into the US it should be a win and yes it will take time like a decade. It will be inflationary as the US consumer pays for it and when income TAX removed they can afford it. I guess the market may not realise this on Monday... and may just see Ford and GM crash and follow.

In the very long run smaller companies flooding back into the US could be a boom for the Russell 2000. Tomorrow, not so much, sadly possibly a sharp pull back in smaller companies.

I am not saying this is all going to work... he has bankrupt 7 companies (I can see Gold jump), but the point is he does have a plan.


US domestic focused equities obviously better.

Long Berkshire, US smaller caps (BASC), companies with monopoly or duopoly that serve the US and international (US big tech, Boeing, Visa). Also bought Hersheys recently which derives large majority of its revenues in the US.

Long US, make America greater again only game in town, everything else is shit.


Domestic US will be hit by stoking US inflation, tariffs on imported raw materials.

US consumers aren't going to stop buying imported goods because in many cases there simply aren't US made alternatives, let alone at Asian prices.

US made TV? Phones? Jeans? Solar Panels? Aircon?

And retaliatory tariffs will make US exports suffer.

Its just bad all round however I look at it...

The only positive will be stronger Dollar providing a brief boost to existing US investments.






Businesses that generate revenues domestically should not be impacted; if anything might gain. Then there are sectors which would benefit from the onshoring of manufacturing like financials, infrastructure, construction etc.

As always though, need to look at fundamentals of the business to value it to see if makes sense.

You were so wrong on GBPUSD last year, now you are reversing your view? Pointless to bet on FX.
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SF100
Posted: 02 February 2025 14:57:29(UTC)
#34

Joined: 08/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,259

Thanks: 4160 times
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2 users thanked SF100 for this post.
Jay P on 02/02/2025(UTC), ANDREW FOSTER on 02/02/2025(UTC)
Hilda Ogden
Posted: 02 February 2025 15:28:31(UTC)
#35

Joined: 31/07/2023(UTC)
Posts: 890
Carnage for my Middlefield Canadian tomorrow morning?
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Johan De Silva
Posted: 02 February 2025 15:52:34(UTC)
#40

Joined: 22/07/2019(UTC)
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Was thanked: 10145 time(s) in 3363 post(s)
Hilda Ogden;332973 wrote:
Carnage for my Middlefield Canadian tomorrow morning?

While all eyes are on how these tariffs will be implemented, MCT is mainly in Financials, Energy and Energy-Utilities not impacted other than energy imports will see a lower duty of just 10 so lower than the 25% on goods. Consumer and healthcare is too small in this trust. There maybe an initial PI wobble and discount widening but if anything the US will need more energy in the next 10 years to power more industry. That's more cost for US industrials, but MCT should benefit. Rates will remain high benefiting Financials.
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Hilda Ogden on 02/02/2025(UTC)
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 02 February 2025 17:24:39(UTC)
#38

Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 8,120
Hilda Ogden;332973 wrote:
Carnage for my Middlefield Canadian tomorrow morning?


Maybe not.

Canadian Dollar rose a bit against the pound after the announcement and that might compensate for a wobble in Canada equity prices.

MAY give a window to exit stage left should you wish to.

This action by Trump is fvkn nuts and I can only see it getting worse. He was citing how America was 'richest' in 1890-1920 with the McKinley tariffs in place.

It's almost as if the world hasn't changed a bit since then...

Maybe Trump and his mates have shorted the Canadian markets ;)


PS The pro-Trump lobby seem to be very quiet on this thread... I wonder why?
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4 users thanked ANDREW FOSTER for this post.
Hilda Ogden on 02/02/2025(UTC), Thrugelmir on 02/02/2025(UTC), Old surfy bloke on 02/02/2025(UTC), North Star on 03/02/2025(UTC)
Johan De Silva
Posted: 02 February 2025 18:27:10(UTC)
#39

Joined: 22/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 4,418

Thanks: 5927 times
Was thanked: 10145 time(s) in 3363 post(s)
ANDREW FOSTER;332979 wrote:
PS The pro-Trump lobby seem to be very quiet on this thread... I wonder why?
Crypto also started pulling back drastically this Sunday. My Solan and Ethereum all down.

It's a bad ohman on anything Trump trade. Think Tesla along with consumer and industrial will drag the index down especially the Russell 2000 that is more tilted towards these.

Financials, communication services, utilities, gold should all inversely do well.
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1 user thanked Johan De Silva for this post.
ANDREW FOSTER on 02/02/2025(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 02 February 2025 22:47:00(UTC)
#36

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,685
Hilda Ogden;332973 wrote:
Carnage for my Middlefield Canadian tomorrow morning?


And CGI. ???
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Newbie
Posted: 02 February 2025 23:02:49(UTC)
#37

Joined: 31/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 3,818
Big boy;333012 wrote:
Hilda Ogden;332973 wrote:
Carnage for my Middlefield Canadian tomorrow morning?


And CGI. ???

FWIW
Sold out of MCT - not for tariffs or anything - but simply because saw better opportunity elsewhere and the fact it has done me proud recently.

Kept CGI and plan to continue to hold.

Anyhow MCT was a vehicle with a basket of Canadian investments,
CGI is a Canadian Investment vehicle with basket of mainly Canadian investments but have more global reach with the likes of Nvidia, Apple, Mcard in the top 10 and the likes of Amazon, Shopify, Builders Firstsource etc. It also has companies such as Franco Nevada, Descartes Systems which also have good global coverage. In other words is just a global investment vehicle which is Canada heavy.
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