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Mr Bean
Posted: 03 February 2025 11:48:06(UTC)
#4324

Joined: 08/04/2021(UTC)
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I don't get these PE plays you guys are chasing.

How much higher does the US stock market have to get before they can get these PE positions away at IPOs?? Indicative of how bonkers the pricing expectations in PE are ??

Infra/renewables look more exciting I think - big discounts with big dividends that are largely well covered and low/no debts?? Lower interest rates giving a clearish route to capital gains??
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Phil 2 on 03/02/2025(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 03 February 2025 11:54:31(UTC)
#4323

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
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Mr GL;333067 wrote:
Big boy;333050 wrote:

Taken some cash (including non PE) of table ready for stocks getting oversold..

Sold CTPE and reduced very overweight HVPE after both had good revaluations having moved towards 12 month highs.


ready for stocks getting oversold do you recognise that this is an attempt for you to predict the future movements of stock prices... you are telling yourself / us a story...

as at today - using your oft repeated mantra - all prices are correct at this moment because of, you know, supply and demand (we live in the best of all possible worlds... everything is correctly priced at all times ... said Panglos... Big Boys younger and more naive little brother)... all information is in the price according to you... everything is correctly priced.../ etc etc


I am not saying I disagree with you.... just hoping that maybe you can agree that MAYBE you could stop repeating meaningless mantras that even you do not believe...


Thank you for pointing out my "mantra" Of course everyday IT/ICs get relatively over or undervalued.

It good to see many of you understanding the under and overvaluations caused daily and hopefully Members will be better off.... I am sure we have all benefited from your many regular comments.

Let's all have a nice day and thank you for the ticking off.


ps ....clearly I should of referred to IT/ICs and not "stock"
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2 users thanked Big boy for this post.
Johan De Silva on 03/02/2025(UTC), Mr GL on 03/02/2025(UTC)
John Bran
Posted: 03 February 2025 19:44:16(UTC)
#4327

Joined: 01/09/2017(UTC)
Posts: 2,128
Going through my PE basically no change, up slightly HGT & 3I, ICGT down slightly and NBPE Down 4%.
Infrastructure slaughtered over the last few months.
Never mind march will be better!!
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ben ski
Posted: 03 February 2025 20:18:34(UTC)
#4325

Joined: 15/01/2016(UTC)
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Mr Bean;333074 wrote:
I don't get these PE plays you guys are chasing.

How much higher does the US stock market have to get before they can get these PE positions away at IPOs?? Indicative of how bonkers the pricing expectations in PE are ??

Infra/renewables look more exciting I think - big discounts with big dividends that are largely well covered and low/no debts?? Lower interest rates giving a clearish route to capital gains??


If you were buying PE funds directly, you'd be holding on for 8-15+ years. So chances are, any PE investment you make, you won't even be realizing the profits in the current market cycle – so forecasting is as good as useless.

The way I'd look at the ITs, discounts represent retail demand. And, like the post-GFC period, retail's still stuck like it's the dip of 2022 – it's composed of people who don't really know how to enter and exit positions. If you learn how to trade, basically everything you learn is just the opposite of how retail behaves.

So if you can buy high quality portfolios of private assets (like HVPE), on 40% discounts, while equity markets are being driven to record highs – sure, one side's right, one side's wrong (they might both be wrong, in different directions) ... but one side's on a huge discount, the other isn't. That's a pretty good way to look at investing.
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Sara G on 03/02/2025(UTC)
ravedeath
Posted: 03 February 2025 20:27:17(UTC)
#4326

Joined: 10/01/2024(UTC)
Posts: 229
ben ski;333147 wrote:
Mr Bean;333074 wrote:
I don't get these PE plays you guys are chasing.

How much higher does the US stock market have to get before they can get these PE positions away at IPOs?? Indicative of how bonkers the pricing expectations in PE are ??

Infra/renewables look more exciting I think - big discounts with big dividends that are largely well covered and low/no debts?? Lower interest rates giving a clearish route to capital gains??


If you were buying PE funds directly, you'd be holding on for 8-15+ years. So chances are, any PE investment you make, you won't even be realizing the profits in the current market cycle – so forecasting is as good as useless.

The way I'd look at the ITs, discounts represent retail demand. And, like the post-GFC period, retail's still stuck like it's the dip of 2022 – it's composed of people who don't really know how to enter and exit positions. If you learn how to trade, basically everything you learn is just the opposite of how retail behaves.

So if you can buy high quality portfolios of private assets (like HVPE), on 40% discounts, while equity markets are being driven to record highs – sure, one side's right, one side's wrong (they might both be wrong, in different directions) ... but one side's on a huge discount, the other isn't. That's a pretty good way to look at investing.


Ben, what PE are you currently holding? Any you're not holding and looking at?
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ben ski
Posted: 03 February 2025 20:51:29(UTC)
#4328

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I've been basically 50:50 HVPE and HGT for a long time. Looking at them all. (I also consider 3IN and PINT PE investments – 3IN's long-term record is comparable to PE funds.)

BOOK was great, but I had to drop it on Labour. I've had a satellite position in Patria PE for a while, and just opened one in Pantheon.

I still stand by HVPE being the only broad PE exposure you need. The NAV's very similar to Pantheon's, but it seems like Pantheon's less efficiently run, as it's struggled to keep up with its peers over longer periods. Presume it's the fee structure.

CT Private Equity has one of the best long-term track records, but being about 40% UK funds/assets (I can't quite tell from their material) I'm wary. It also had a big price spike, nearly 9%, over the past week. I may have bought if it hadn't been for that.

I'd like to diversify more, just to diversify the discounts a bit more. That's the only reason I added Pantheon. But I think I'll keep rebalancing from HGT, and adding to HVPE. I'd add to Patria if the outlook for Europe were a bit cheerier (but I think Europe could be in the doldrums quite a bit longer than 15 years, unless something changes).
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6 users thanked ben ski for this post.
ravedeath on 03/02/2025(UTC), Sara G on 03/02/2025(UTC), Pre Ka on 03/02/2025(UTC), Auric on 03/02/2025(UTC), Nick Mawer on 04/02/2025(UTC), markydeedrop on 08/02/2025(UTC)
ravedeath
Posted: 03 February 2025 21:06:11(UTC)
#4329

Joined: 10/01/2024(UTC)
Posts: 229
Thanks, yes I ask as on the cusp of adding a couple of small positions alongside HVPE, HGT and CTPE. Have proceeds from NBPE sale and looking at APAX and PIN. BOOK I sold some months back also, bit of a shame but have RKW and more recently ONWD, which I am also thinking of adding to. Both PE style in UK micro, interestingly ONWD targeting companies with overseas earnings. But it is small and expensive.
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Pre Ka on 03/02/2025(UTC), ben ski on 04/02/2025(UTC)
Newbie
Posted: 03 February 2025 21:18:21(UTC)
#4330

Joined: 31/01/2012(UTC)
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Apart from PE itself you could also look at PE managers themselves.

Here you are investing in the fee income of the PE managers - if their PE vehicles do pull up and they get exits, then their fee also goes up.

The likes of IPRV, XLPE, FLPE (which invest in the managers Apollo, KKR, Blackstone, PGHN etc) are doing me proud and in cases beating the PE vehicles which I also hold (such as, HVPE, 3i, HGT, ICGT, PIN NBPE, OCI, CTPE etc).

So this also an option imo.
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3 users thanked Newbie for this post.
ravedeath on 03/02/2025(UTC), Pre Ka on 03/02/2025(UTC), Auric on 03/02/2025(UTC)
Robert D
Posted: 04 February 2025 11:52:42(UTC)
#4331

Joined: 06/11/2016(UTC)
Posts: 1,473
CTPE taking one heck of a thumping today, down 7 per cent. Any reason why?
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Phil 2
Posted: 04 February 2025 12:19:04(UTC)
#4337

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Robert D;333199 wrote:
CTPE taking one heck of a thumping today, down 7 per cent. Any reason why?



Just a market brain fart? 52w is 412 - 530p so despite a big burp today, a SP of 494p is “in range”? See ENRG… -7% yesterday, +5.5% today.
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2 users thanked Phil 2 for this post.
Robert D on 04/02/2025(UTC), lindsay Morrison2 on 05/02/2025(UTC)
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