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Newbie
Posted: 24 February 2025 18:01:59(UTC)
#4369

Joined: 31/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 3,816

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LondonYank84;335650 wrote:
Have sold a bit of HGT to add KKR (down c.20% in past month)

My target PE allocation is ~12%, with 5-6% in the GPs (BN, BX, KKR) and then two fund holdings at 3% each (HGT and CTPE, currently).

I dived into KKR too early and am now sitting on minus 16%.
Apollo not so bad (have been topping this up) - any views on this would be appreciated.

Threw out a lot of HVPE
HGT up to limit
CTPE (some headroom left)
OCI - thought sub £5 was good value but kept dropping
ICGT sub £13 and I will add again
3i - busting at the seams !

Thinks like IPRV, XLPE, FLPE (investors in PE outfits) have been good to me recently.
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2 users thanked Newbie for this post.
LondonYank84 on 24/02/2025(UTC), Auric on 24/02/2025(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 24 February 2025 18:56:14(UTC)
#4362

Joined: 07/05/2015(UTC)
Posts: 4,038

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Johan De Silva;335208 wrote:
Yesterday alone CHRY buybacks went up to 700,000 shares.

Crunching some numbers:

With 557 million shares outstanding, the NAV would increase by approximately 0.03145% each day from purchasing 500,000 shares at a 35% discount. Therefore, over one month, the NAV would increase by approximately 0.9484%... thats 11% NAV increase from buybacks alone if they had the cash but I suspect the cash would run out May or June?


Just to note that voting on CHRY AGM proposals, which includes buybacks, is open until 7th March. (After the SABA business, I've decided to participate in shareholder votes whenever the opportunity arises.)
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1 user thanked Sara G for this post.
Big boy on 01/03/2025(UTC)
Johan De Silva
Posted: 24 February 2025 19:40:59(UTC)
#4363

Joined: 22/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 4,414
Sara G;335660 wrote:
Johan De Silva;335208 wrote:
Yesterday alone CHRY buybacks went up to 700,000 shares.

Crunching some numbers:

With 557 million shares outstanding, the NAV would increase by approximately 0.03145% each day from purchasing 500,000 shares at a 35% discount. Therefore, over one month, the NAV would increase by approximately 0.9484%... thats 11% NAV increase from buybacks alone if they had the cash but I suspect the cash would run out May or June?


Just to note that voting on CHRY AGM proposals, which includes buybacks, is open until 7th March. (After the SABA business, I've decided to participate in shareholder votes whenever the opportunity arises.)


Thanks for the nudge. I have 6 figures in this across myself and the in-laws and have no idea which way I would vote. It has brief lumpy track record so will not be missed if the rest slowly wound down. But with 30% of the portfolio in Starling Bank this is the only way of getting meaningful exposure to this unicorn so they would need to keep this as the last company to sell in such an event.

I'll probably just vote both way across multiple accounts to further the crusade.
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LondonYank84
Posted: 24 February 2025 20:04:26(UTC)
#4370

Joined: 23/12/2022(UTC)
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Newbie;335655 wrote:
LondonYank84;335650 wrote:
Have sold a bit of HGT to add KKR (down c.20% in past month)

My target PE allocation is ~12%, with 5-6% in the GPs (BN, BX, KKR) and then two fund holdings at 3% each (HGT and CTPE, currently).

I dived into KKR too early and am now sitting on minus 16%.
Apollo not so bad (have been topping this up) - any views on this would be appreciated.

Threw out a lot of HVPE
HGT up to limit
CTPE (some headroom left)
OCI - thought sub £5 was good value but kept dropping
ICGT sub £13 and I will add again
3i - busting at the seams !

Thinks like IPRV, XLPE, FLPE (investors in PE outfits) have been good to me recently.


Unlike the moribund LPE shares in the UK as of late, the US GPs are are high beta - prices move a lot (often moving a few % each day). So over the short term, entry point can matter. If, like me, you are happy to own them for 10+ years, then I wouldn't worry about it too much. Apollo, KKR, BX, etc are well placed to benefit from the continued trend of capital flowing into private markets.

Re, KKR itself. I like that they are well diversified (@JDS, not sure where you got your exposure to financials figures from) across PE, Infra, Credit and Real Estate and are at the early stages of building their own balance sheet investments, which will essentially give investors free access to KKR deals (like Brookfield).



Valuation wise, they don't provide a NAV like Brookfield Corp, but the entry point is looking more attractive with the recent decline. Going off Morgan Stanley numbers (below), I get a 2025 PE of 22x and 2026E PE of 17x, which feels like decent enough entry point for a long term position.



BN still very much looking like a bargain though...

Their investor day deck is worth a look for anyone how the general partners continue to find ways to innovate and harvest AUM ...

Link: https://ir.kkr.com/media....pdf?disposition=inline




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4 users thanked LondonYank84 for this post.
Johan De Silva on 24/02/2025(UTC), Auric on 24/02/2025(UTC), Newbie on 25/02/2025(UTC), Sheerman on 25/02/2025(UTC)
Johan De Silva
Posted: 25 February 2025 10:51:05(UTC)
#4371

Joined: 22/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 4,414
LondonYank84;335666 wrote:
Valuation wise, they don't provide a NAV like Brookfield Corp, but the entry point is looking more attractive with the recent decline. Going off Morgan Stanley numbers (below), I get a 2025 PE of 22x and 2026E PE of 17x, which feels like decent enough entry point for a long term position.

While that could easily support the share price, P/E does not include debt repayments and I suspect KKR has a substantial amount of debt that I can not put a figure on other than around around $14 billion that I suspect is incorrectly way too low when it has a market cap of $116 billion. More research on debt clearly needed by me.

Edit: AI claims EV/EBITDA of KKR at 45.66. This may explain the volatility.

Markets have a good idea where the netral rate is as every month passes and I had suspected this is the reason for the decline, more so than the general slow down of the economic pick up. Neutral rate is one reason I sold BN for PSH and allow Bill's team to manage my BN exposure at a discount. As for KKR, if AI is right on valuation I will hold off for a bit longer as it is in a strong down move.

Edit 27/02/2022: The only support for this now is that KKR is oversold on the RSI: https://www.tradingview.com/x/q6oJK4Qh/

The RSI works more often than not to indelicate a potential bottom of an decline.
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2 users thanked Johan De Silva for this post.
Sheerman on 25/02/2025(UTC), Big boy on 27/02/2025(UTC)
Johan De Silva
Posted: 27 February 2025 15:47:16(UTC)
#4373

Joined: 22/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 4,414
Apollo's presentation is remarkably similar:
https://d1io3yog0oux5.cl...r+Day+Presentation+.pdf

There is a Apollo's video here:
https://ir.apollo.com/ne...vents/investor-day-2024

There is a bullish tone in these US investments you do not get here in the UK.
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Sheerman on 27/02/2025(UTC)
Johan De Silva
Posted: 28 February 2025 21:21:59(UTC)
#4374

Joined: 22/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 4,414
UK banks are smashing the SP performance out the park this week.

Basic research paper released this week on CHRY:
https://quoteddata.com/r...ents-return-to-form-qd/

Note they are buying back 500,000 shares a day at 36% discount.
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Sheerman on 01/03/2025(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 01 March 2025 10:29:08(UTC)
#4375

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,679
Johan De Silva;336112 wrote:
UK banks are smashing the SP performance out the park this week.

Basic research paper released this week on CHRY:
https://quoteddata.com/r...ents-return-to-form-qd/

Note they are buying back 500,000 shares a day at 36% discount.


Are the Banks undervalue or overvalued to-day....clearly recent past performance is encouraging.
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Big boy
Posted: 01 March 2025 10:44:03(UTC)
#4365

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,679
Mr GL;335613 wrote:
closed out PIN down 2% YTD (small 1% gain from purchase)
added some to HVPE flat YTD (at AJ Bell - HL wont allow purchases)
added more to OCI down 6% YTD (at both AJ Bell and HL... think HL have only just changed to allow OCI purchases again?)

0.0% Pantheon PIN Private Equity
4.5% Harborvest HVPE Private Equity
5.7% Oakley OCI Private Equity

PIN 5yr NAV TR 82% discount 35%
HVPE 5yr NAV TR 104% discount 36%
OCI 5yr NAV TR 110% discount 32%

(HGT 5yr NAV TR 121% and 4% discount currently...)



Clearly we are seeing investors causing mispricing by chasing the past performance. On the law of averages the next 5 years could show a reverse of out and underperformance. The odds must be close to 50/50 or even adverse due to 'greed" factor which we see over and over again as the "best" are chased up.

After resetting the past performance to zero we see HVPE and PIN as the most attractive stocks as at to-day.

This dosent mean that the others aren't attractive compared with other IT/ICs. (REITS/INFRA etc).

Not sure why you are not in PIN.....

I have term investments in all 3 and tend to be overweight.....Thanks for highlighting. the useful and informative stats.
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Johan De Silva
Posted: 01 March 2025 11:03:30(UTC)
#4376

Joined: 22/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 4,414
Big boy;336144 wrote:
Johan De Silva;336112 wrote:
UK banks are smashing the SP performance out the park this week.

Basic research paper released this week on CHRY:
https://quoteddata.com/r...ents-return-to-form-qd/

Note they are buying back 500,000 shares a day at 36% discount.


Are the Banks undervalue or overvalued to-day....clearly recent past performance is encouraging.

Fair value began on the US banks first like JPMorgan and went overvalued.

European banks playing catch-up.

UK banks catching up dramatically and I include some rest of world banks like HSBC and STAN.

Leaving Starling Bank and Tide undervalued on NAV and Discount.

It's not just banks... Insurance, fintech etc... ALPH, XPS etc.... still undervalued. That puts Klarna in the picture and the US competitor on much higher valuations.

My general alpha creation come from catch up plays and IT discounts are part of this.
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2 users thanked Johan De Silva for this post.
Sheerman on 01/03/2025(UTC), Big boy on 01/03/2025(UTC)
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