The whole Market Wizards series are probably my favourite books on "investing". Certainly the most fun. And they give you a real grounding in the mechanics of markets.

But as a warning: you could copy what anyone in those books is doing today, and it won't work. Markets are always evolving. What's interesting is the understanding you develop, the historical context, and principles (rather than rules) among successful traders that seem a bit universal.

We're only an enemy to Russia's leadership because our leadership's sending missiles and aircraft to be used to attack Russia's land, people and infrastructure. It's not our war, and we may not agree with taxpayer money being used in this way when people are waiting 6 months for a doctor's appointment here. So who's our enemy?

There's no evidence Putin has any intention of invading a NATO member country. In his own words it would mean instant annihilation.

So why do you believe that?

The US government (whether Trump's or any another future Republican leader's) have no appetite for either providing further funding to Ukraine or to putting US military assets on the ground. Europe (other than apparently our glorious leader) have no appetite for putting boots on the ground and, other than Germany, are broke. Ukraine is running out of able bodied men. Russia is already running a war economy and is going to be able to produce armaments much faster than Europe can supply Ukraine. Russia has many more able bodied men (some are Korean!) to call on than Ukraine. There isn't a hope in hell of this war being won (in the sense of expelling Russia from territory they have captured) by Ukraine. In the meantime Ukrainian soldiers and civilians continue to be slaughtered and Russia makes incremental territorial gains.

Trump's attempts to force a settlement seems to be the only rational action being taken. Continuing "as is" will cost lots of cash (which we don't have) and lots of lives and will ultimately end up with Russia in control of the land they currently occupy. Maybe it's a lesson to Europe to sort out their own defence capability and to stop relying on the US (which to be fair, many previous US presidents have suggested, Trump is the first one to look like he'll call Europe's bluff).

Pete

Another way to use politics and culture as a signal for investing decisions is to identify when the media and the NPCs are going berserk about some thing or other. Imagine, if you will, that you are looking into an enclosure full of primitive apes:

One moment it is all calm... the monkeys are quietly grooming one another by the pond... some chimpanzees are drinking their PG Tips... a gorilla lazes in the warm spring sun, in a post coital manner... the sloth scratches his head, very slowly... a gibbon stares pensively into the distance.

And then suddenly, a Bang! All is asunder. Screeching, trees and bushes rustle and shake violently, teeth are bared, the silverback punches a pretender to his throne, a chimp swipes the tea pot from the table, cups and saucers go flying, the monkeys start stealing bananas, the baboons howl, the sloth very slowly stops scratching his head, and the gibbon is distracted from his long gaze and then appears a little sad.

The human ape enclosure is no different. It doesn't matter what "the thing" is. When you can identify the raised anxiety going on and observe your fellows going mad about one thing or another, in concert with the media and elites, and the markers start falling... you have a potential buying opportunity before the calm conditions predictably return.

You only need to discern in a vague way when these broader patterns of behaviour occur. It doesn't matter about the detail of it. Don't concern yourself with what these fools believe they are thinking. Whatever you do, don't copy their responses. Doing nothing at all is a win. But if you are nimble and lucky you might be able to take advantage in a more active, rather than passive, fashion. Providing you're not being stupid about it. See my previous post about basic investing habits.