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Johan De Silva
Posted: 06 March 2025 13:08:14(UTC)
#4394

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Big boy;336689 wrote:
Johan De Silva;336685 wrote:
Some very significant news just in this morning:
https://www.finews.com/n...ews/66655-klarna-ipo-usa


Which of our stocks hold Klama and what sort of uplift are you going for. …

We have been awaiting more IPOs but in mean time we have a few take overs to keep the IT/IC attractive.

Only CHRY hold meaningful amount (15% of AUM) to have an impact vs HVPE that has a tiny fraction of a single percentage: https://chrysalisinvestments.co.uk/portfolio/

The driver is not the NAV growth of Klarna but the publicity CHRY will get if the IPO goes well.

I am not sure how long the lock in period is but the liquidity will help with future buybacks and the currently CHRY is on a discount of over 38%. Though there will be a share holder vote to return cash directly.
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Big boy on 06/03/2025(UTC), John Bran on 06/03/2025(UTC)
Johan De Silva
Posted: 07 March 2025 15:11:40(UTC)
#4396

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I have added to KKR that is now some way off it's 200 day average. At some discount to LY again. Hope to repeat a BN experience. This is a second batch today and priced at $113.52/£87.81

KKR have proven performance without being a tech fund so it adds some diversification. I think they are well positioned to do some buying after they had a equity raise announcement this week.

I have very little clue about the valuation. Sold some HGT that held up to fund this!
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Johan De Silva
Posted: 08 March 2025 08:58:44(UTC)
#4397

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With U.S. markets entering a bear run (trading below the 200-day moving average), I analysed the potential implications for a Klarna listing on the NASDAQ. Considering factors like index outflows, one might expect UK-based companies listed there, such as Ryanair, to face downward pressure. Surprisingly, that's not the case. International listings buck the outflows of the index:


Interactive link to chart: https://www.google.com/f...%3ANSRGY&window=YTD

My conclusion: US investors are buying international companies on the NASDAQ and index outflows have little impact. There could even be a tailwind for Klarna.
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Auric on 09/03/2025(UTC)
Johan De Silva
Posted: 09 March 2025 21:39:36(UTC)
#4398

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Week or year ahead... It's a reduce on HVPE, PIN, NBPE, even ICGT or anything with high US exposure. We could experience NAV declines on both currency and valuations through H1.

Buy the UK/European ones... OCI, 3IN, CHRY, Patria, CT etc...
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Taltunes on 09/03/2025(UTC)
ben ski
Posted: 09 March 2025 22:16:01(UTC)
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I've got this on forecast IPO activity in 2025. There's definitely more momentum in the US at the moment. And it's the US that's deregulating. Much more self-contained market, too, if the world's deglobalising a bit.

US Market: The US is projected to lead in IPO activity, with higher capital raises and a greater number of listings, driven by a robust pipeline of tech companies and favorable market conditions.​
UK and Europe: While Europe, including the UK, is on a path to recovery, the pace is more measured. The focus is on revitalizing capital markets and attracting high-profile listings to bolster market confidence.
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Johan De Silva on 09/03/2025(UTC)
Auric
Posted: 09 March 2025 22:39:50(UTC)
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ben ski;337034 wrote:
I've got this on forecast IPO activity in 2025. There's definitely more momentum in the US at the moment. And it's the US that's deregulating. Much more self-contained market, too, if the world's deglobalising a bit.

US Market: The US is projected to lead in IPO activity, with higher capital raises and a greater number of listings, driven by a robust pipeline of tech companies and favorable market conditions.​
UK and Europe: While Europe, including the UK, is on a path to recovery, the pace is more measured. The focus is on revitalizing capital markets and attracting high-profile listings to bolster market confidence.


I don't recognise that narrative. So long as US policy is so volatile; dealmakers will be struggling to navigate actions on tariffs and other policy and economic changes. How the heck does the buyer create a 5 yr business plan that evaluates potential future value to justify investment with such handicaps? As for the seller; how does such extreme volatility in the quoted markets allow for price discovery? Get real!
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Thrugelmir on 10/03/2025(UTC)
ben ski
Posted: 09 March 2025 23:46:22(UTC)
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Auric;337037 wrote:
ben ski;337034 wrote:
I've got this on forecast IPO activity in 2025. There's definitely more momentum in the US at the moment. And it's the US that's deregulating. Much more self-contained market, too, if the world's deglobalising a bit.

US Market: The US is projected to lead in IPO activity, with higher capital raises and a greater number of listings, driven by a robust pipeline of tech companies and favorable market conditions.​
UK and Europe: While Europe, including the UK, is on a path to recovery, the pace is more measured. The focus is on revitalizing capital markets and attracting high-profile listings to bolster market confidence.


I don't recognise that narrative. So long as US policy is so volatile; dealmakers will be struggling to navigate actions on tariffs and other policy and economic changes. How the heck does the buyer create a 5 yr business plan that evaluates potential future value to justify investment with such handicaps? As for the seller; how does such extreme volatility in the quoted markets allow for price discovery? Get real!


Tariffs only affect specific sectors, and the US is a much more self-sufficient economy than Europe's. This is why they're in a stronger position in a potential trade war.

You can also take sectors like materials, and argue there's a bull and bear case for higher tariffs – it is about protecting US industries. So while markets are pricing in disruption, I don't think this is going to crush private equity deal making.
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Johan De Silva
Posted: 10 March 2025 07:41:41(UTC)
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ben ski;337034 wrote:
I've got this on forecast IPO activity in 2025. There's definitely more momentum in the US at the moment. And it's the US that's deregulating. Much more self-contained market, too, if the world's deglobalising a bit.

US Market: The US is projected to lead in IPO activity, with higher capital raises and a greater number of listings, driven by a robust pipeline of tech companies and favorable market conditions.​
UK and Europe: While Europe, including the UK, is on a path to recovery, the pace is more measured. The focus is on revitalizing capital markets and attracting high-profile listings to bolster market confidence.

I don't know how anyone can argue against the specifics here over a longer time frame than my thinking. US will remain the place to IPO hence why Klarna is doing it on the NASDAQ. The one factor to consider is the European stocks had been so much cheaper than the S&P500 on a historic basis and right now on the NASDAQ the European and UK companies are in the green. This is a journey with bumps along the way and yield curve is interesting as Germany has little debt and can withstand higher yields, while the UK and other countries can not.
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Big boy
Posted: 10 March 2025 10:19:51(UTC)
#4403

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,679
Simple question after the excellent commentary and intellect on the subject what is "cheap" and "dear" in the sector.


I appreciate on the one hand but on the other hand etc. etc. Sorry I cant take in all the talk of future things happening and I wonder how many Cos need to go into that detail.

Clearly many man hours are spent making these predictions but does anybody tell us which PEs are undervalued or overvalued using a simple method.
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