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Robin
Posted: 30 March 2022 10:00:25(UTC)
#192

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I'm in two minds on this - having recently sold out. It seems a heady % fee to pay for a relatively small number of holdings and some insurance policies. Take away the bet made before Covid (how many opportunities will there be for similar pay offs in the future?) and it hasn't done a lot special in the last 18months, notwithstanding the clever talk. Indeed prior to Covid it was nothing special on the charts compared to say VWRL. Am I missing a trick as a longer term prospect? Happy to be convinced either way!
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Mr GL on 30/03/2022(UTC)
Old Jock
Posted: 30 March 2022 10:01:38(UTC)
#194

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Small correction to what I said above, it looks like the dividend doesn't decrease in future years. Looks even better in other words.

Also pleased to see the inflation/interest rate hedge is back on.
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Mr GL on 30/03/2022(UTC)
Mr GL
Posted: 30 March 2022 11:05:12(UTC)
#193

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Robin;215993 wrote:
I'm in two minds on this - having recently sold out. It seems a heady % fee to pay for a relatively small number of holdings and some insurance policies. Take away the bet made before Covid (how many opportunities will there be for similar pay offs in the future?) and it hasn't done a lot special in the last 18months, notwithstanding the clever talk. Indeed prior to Covid it was nothing special on the charts compared to say VWRL. Am I missing a trick as a longer term prospect? Happy to be convinced either way!


currently its on a 33% discount - SP -2945p

PSH NAV per share as of close of business on 29 March 2022 was 57.49 USD /43.89 GBP and year-to-date performance was 0.5%.

since pre COVID Dec /2019 it is up by 102% - ie share price has doubled... reading the annual report he has again - via shorts / options on interest rates - has made a chunk of money this year insulating his mark to market losses on equities...

I just added on the 33% discount

Pershing Square PSH Global Value 3.2%

EDIT****
added... done. Pershing Square PSH Global Value 5.1%
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Robin on 30/03/2022(UTC)
Old Jock
Posted: 30 March 2022 11:41:23(UTC)
#195

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Robin, if it helps your decision, I do not see any link myself between management fee and number of holdings.

In fact, I would tend to say the higher the number of holdings the lower the conviction level from the manager, and the lower the chance of outperformance. If you have 100 holdings it's more likely you end up with a closet tracker.

And it's probably harder to narrow an investment universe down to just 10 stocks, and just pick what you hope is the cream of the crop. In other words, it's less work for a manager to cop out and just buy everything, and the hard work is narrowing it down.

Or to put it another way, do you prefer to have some investment in say, the manager's 31st best investment idea, or his 100th best suggestion. I would far rather have the firepower concentrated in the top 10 or so that he expects will significantly outperform.

I would also say its not just a bit of insurance, it's very punchy macro bets, that you don't get in any other investment vehicle.

It's horses for courses though I agree, and this isn't everyone's cup of tea, but for me it ticks the right boxes.
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Guest on 30/03/2022(UTC), Raj K on 30/03/2022(UTC), Robin on 30/03/2022(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 30 March 2022 12:00:54(UTC)
#197

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Old Jock;216015 wrote:
Robin, if it helps your decision, I do not see any link myself between management fee and number of holdings.

In fact, I would tend to say the higher the number of holdings the lower the conviction level from the manager, and the lower the chance of outperformance. If you have 100 holdings it's more likely you end up with a closet tracker.

And it's probably harder to narrow an investment universe down to just 10 stocks, and just pick what you hope is the cream of the crop. In other words, it's less work for a manager to cop out and just buy everything, and the hard work is narrowing it down.

Or to put it another way, do you prefer to have some investment in say, the manager's 31st best investment idea, or his 100th best suggestion. I would far rather have the firepower concentrated in the top 10 or so that he expects will significantly outperform.

I would also say its not just a bit of insurance, it's very punchy macro bets, that you don't get in any other investment vehicle.

It's horses for courses though I agree, and this isn't everyone's cup of tea, but for me it ticks the right boxes.


Based on personal experience I would much prefer the 100 share route. If using the 10 share route you have to be ultra safe and therefor finish up with yesterdays stocks. It the smaller stocks that you will tend to find the better growth. This is one of the reasons I have for running a portfolio with say a thousand or more holdings. Trackers are based on the past and I prefer to invest to-day for to-morrow.

edit for the record I am overweigh PSH with 3000 shares...
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Old Jock on 30/03/2022(UTC), Robin on 30/03/2022(UTC), Alfa 2 on 30/03/2022(UTC), Harry Trout on 21/04/2022(UTC)
Raj K
Posted: 30 March 2022 12:16:23(UTC)
#196

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Old Jock;216015 wrote:
Robin, if it helps your decision, I do not see any link myself between management fee and number of holdings.

In fact, I would tend to say the higher the number of holdings the lower the conviction level from the manager, and the lower the chance of outperformance. If you have 100 holdings it's more likely you end up with a closet tracker.

And it's probably harder to narrow an investment universe down to just 10 stocks, and just pick what you hope is the cream of the crop. In other words, it's less work for a manager to cop out and just buy everything, and the hard work is narrowing it down.

Or to put it another way, do you prefer to have some investment in say, the manager's 31st best investment idea, or his 100th best suggestion. I would far rather have the firepower concentrated in the top 10 or so that he expects will significantly outperform.

I would also say its not just a bit of insurance, it's very punchy macro bets, that you don't get in any other investment vehicle.

It's horses for courses though I agree, and this isn't everyone's cup of tea, but for me it ticks the right boxes.


Also when you have only 10 companies you can keep an eye on them properly. With the quiet active engagement that PSCM carry out i would be more confident that they can identify and encourage value creation. Never understood how any manager can select 100 companies within their fund and keep on top of all of them etc. Seems to be a good strategy for uber growth like in EWI as you know many holdings will be duffers but for true hardcore investing concntrated is better (in my opinion). As private investors we can always diversify amongst multiple concentrated funds so in effect we are spreading the risk that way.
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Old Jock on 30/03/2022(UTC), Robin on 30/03/2022(UTC), Richard Lambert on 30/03/2022(UTC)
Johan De Silva
Posted: 30 March 2022 12:45:15(UTC)
#198

Joined: 22/07/2019(UTC)
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10 companies eh. Imagine if all these smart fund managers put all their efforts into something to help progress humanity rather than spending time making bets and monitoring 10 companies.
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Old Jock
Posted: 30 March 2022 12:53:38(UTC)
#200

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Capitalism does help humanity ultimately, at least based on historical evidence, if you compare capitalist countries with communist ones, in terms of technological advancement and lifting people out of poverty.

It's not perfect, but its the least worst economic system.
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Guest on 31/03/2022(UTC)
Bulldog Drummond
Posted: 30 March 2022 13:14:07(UTC)
#201

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Old Jock;216030 wrote:
Capitalism does help humanity ultimately, at least based on historical evidence, if you compare capitalist countries with communist ones, in terms of technological advancement and lifting people out of poverty.

It's not perfect, but its the least worst economic system.

The old joke is that capitalism produces goods whereas communism produces bads, i.e. the value of the finished product is worth less than the resources used to make it. Capitalism has certainly improved beyond compare the quality of life for the ordinary man.
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Old Jock on 30/03/2022(UTC), Guest on 31/03/2022(UTC)
Richard Lambert
Posted: 30 March 2022 14:17:50(UTC)
#199

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Johan De Silva;216029 wrote:
10 companies eh. Imagine if all these smart fund managers put all their efforts into something to help progress humanity rather than spending time making bets and monitoring 10 companies.

Eh ???
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Guest on 31/03/2022(UTC)
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