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Fundsmith Performance
Kraftwerk
Posted: 25 November 2021 08:16:22(UTC)

Joined: 07/02/2021(UTC)
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Frank Marquis;195522 wrote:
New webinar with Terry Smith:

https://youtu.be/MIVALZmZPDE


Thanks for the link. As ever, a straight shooter and very articulate. As a communicator, I find it's a night-and-day difference between him and Nick Train.

The only problem is that every time I listen to him, I want to put more money into FS.
2 users thanked Kraftwerk for this post.
Chris1986 on 25/11/2021(UTC), Jesse M on 25/11/2021(UTC)
countrymum
Posted: 25 November 2021 08:40:02(UTC)

Joined: 05/08/2019(UTC)
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Kraftwerk;196620 wrote:
As ever, a straight shooter and very articulate.

Recent straight-shooter quote:“I intend to pursue legal action against you in every respect in whatever jurisdiction you are in indefinitely. Even if I don’t win I will cause you problems for years.”

Still gives me shivers.
2 users thanked countrymum for this post.
Sheerman on 25/11/2021(UTC), Blunt Instrument on 06/01/2022(UTC)
SimonHughes
Posted: 25 November 2021 09:14:53(UTC)

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For interests sake I have just had a look at Fundsmith performance since this thread was started (I used 18/03/2021) to date and it is 18.9% against VWRP (the Acc version of VWRL) which is 16.7%.

I know that comparisons against benchmarks raises its own set of questions and arguments but the bottom line, for me, is that Fundsmith is doing very nicely indeed.

And has done for many years.

And hopefully will into the future.
4 users thanked SimonHughes for this post.
Chris1986 on 25/11/2021(UTC), Jesse M on 25/11/2021(UTC), Joe Soap on 25/11/2021(UTC), David Locke on 25/11/2021(UTC)
Kraftwerk
Posted: 25 November 2021 11:30:41(UTC)

Joined: 07/02/2021(UTC)
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countrymum;196622 wrote:
Kraftwerk;196620 wrote:
As ever, a straight shooter and very articulate.

Recent straight-shooter quote:“I intend to pursue legal action against you in every respect in whatever jurisdiction you are in indefinitely. Even if I don’t win I will cause you problems for years.”

Still gives me shivers.


Perhaps a bit off topic...

Steve Jobs fathered a daughter at 23, then denied paternity despite a DNA match, and finally gave approximately $500 a month in child support at a time when he was worth $200 million. Quite movingly told in this memoir.

Despite his personal failings he enjoys practically messianic status in today's popular culture. And that hasn't stopped some of us (dare I say all of us?) owning, and profiting, from AAPL either directly or indirectly.

I'm not defending Terry Smith, I just prefer not to comment on other people's personal lives and conduct as I find that can be a very slippery slope.

My comment was strictly about his investment philosophy and communication style therein.

Thanks.
6 users thanked Kraftwerk for this post.
Jesse M on 25/11/2021(UTC), Joe Soap on 25/11/2021(UTC), smg8 on 25/11/2021(UTC), David Locke on 25/11/2021(UTC), Raj K on 25/11/2021(UTC), Guest on 25/11/2021(UTC)
David Locke
Posted: 25 November 2021 13:29:30(UTC)

Joined: 27/03/2021(UTC)
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SimonHughes;196625 wrote:
For interests sake I have just had a look at Fundsmith performance since this thread was started (I used 18/03/2021) to date and it is 18.9% against VWRP (the Acc version of VWRL) which is 16.7%.

I know that comparisons against benchmarks raises its own set of questions and arguments but the bottom line, for me, is that Fundsmith is doing very nicely indeed.

And has done for many years.

And hopefully will into the future.


I'm investing in Fundsmith (the one active I have left). However, without wanting to kick a hornet's nest, that statistic doesn't strike me as that great. Fundsmith is maybe 0.75% more expensive so very slight outperformance - nothing to write home about.
2 users thanked David Locke for this post.
smg8 on 25/11/2021(UTC), Kraftwerk on 25/11/2021(UTC)
smg8
Posted: 25 November 2021 13:44:25(UTC)

Joined: 26/04/2020(UTC)
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Probably inclined to agree with David, I am a holder of Fundsmith too. Really like the way TS communicates his strategy, far better than pretty much any other fund manager I can think of.

I hold 2 x quality funds, FS and Threadneedle Global Focus. Meanwhile Blackrock Global Unconstrained is one of 2 funds I have half an eye on for an end of year portfolio change.

Comparing the 3 year to date leaves FS trailing way behind (20% FS, 27% Threadneedle, 32% Blackrock). The iShares World Quality Index is up 25%.

As always YTD is meaningless in the grand scheme of things, 18th March to now is similarly meaningless. And TS has a superb unmatched track record, so not a criticism of FS at all (I know there are some hardcore fans amongst us :-D) , not a knee jerk, and not saying I or anyone else should switch.

BUT I do think it's worth looking at what the competition is doing from time to time.....
3 users thanked smg8 for this post.
Kraftwerk on 25/11/2021(UTC), Jesse M on 25/11/2021(UTC), dominic tugal on 27/11/2021(UTC)
Raj K
Posted: 25 November 2021 13:47:44(UTC)

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Jesse M;195760 wrote:
Frank Marquis;195522 wrote:
New webinar with Terry Smith:

https://youtu.be/MIVALZmZPDE


Re Pet food, I couldn't agree more with TS. Five pet dogs ago I was feeding my dog £10-15 kibble, now in 2021 my current dog an Alapaha Blue Blood Bulldog (taller classic type) is fed a raw meat diet supplemented with bones and fresh vegetables costing me monthly the equivalent of 2 weeks family shopping for 3 people.
I don't begrudge him even though he eats better than me.
I see pet supplies as a growing industry as we spend more on our pets than ever before and don't think it has peaked yet.


I applaud you feeding your dog what it was meant to eat, raw meat instead of the pre packaged garbage!

3 users thanked Raj K for this post.
Jesse M on 25/11/2021(UTC), Guest on 25/11/2021(UTC), Jim Thompson on 27/11/2021(UTC)
Bulldog Drummond
Posted: 25 November 2021 17:00:57(UTC)

Joined: 03/10/2017(UTC)
Posts: 6,253

Raj K;196697 wrote:


I applaud you feeding your dog what it was meant to eat, raw meat instead of the pre packaged garbage!

In the 18th century, sailors in the Royal Navy mostly lived on ancient, rotten meat in barrels, and hard biscuits with weevils in them. And Rum. Even half a century ago I was fed the most awful rubbish at prep school. Pig's Liver, Sago Pudding, Semolina Pudding, Sprouts, Gala Pie, Skool Sossidges, Prunes in Custard. I would not be inclined to spoil pets.
Kraftwerk
Posted: 25 November 2021 21:32:19(UTC)

Joined: 07/02/2021(UTC)
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smg8;196695 wrote:
Probably inclined to agree with David, I am a holder of Fundsmith too. Really like the way TS communicates his strategy, far better than pretty much any other fund manager I can think of.

I hold 2 x quality funds, FS and Threadneedle Global Focus. Meanwhile Blackrock Global Unconstrained is one of 2 funds I have half an eye on for an end of year portfolio change.

Comparing the 3 year to date leaves FS trailing way behind (20% FS, 27% Threadneedle, 32% Blackrock). The iShares World Quality Index is up 25%.

As always YTD is meaningless in the grand scheme of things, 18th March to now is similarly meaningless. And TS has a superb unmatched track record, so not a criticism of FS at all (I know there are some hardcore fans amongst us :-D) , not a knee jerk, and not saying I or anyone else should switch.

BUT I do think it's worth looking at what the competition is doing from time to time.....


Great food for thought, smg8. My quality holdings are Rathbone Global Opps and FS, so did some comparisons. I didn't have a chance to look at Blackrock but I did look at Threadneedle.

Rebasing some random picks to a starting price of 100 on 1-Feb-19, I got the following returns through to 25-Nov-21,
- TRP 200
- TGF 193
- RGO 190
- BW 185
- FS 170
- Premier Miton Euro Opps 200 (I have a small, lazy position in this fund and hadn't realised just how well it had done)

In fact if you run this time series from 1-Feb-19 to 10-Nov-21 you get PM Euro Opps at 206 making it 4 points clear of TRP.... and they say you need to own US megacaps to outperform!!!

Diving into the portfolios a bit, the size of the top ten concentration between FS and TGF is quite similar - around 49-50% of the portfolio, BW on 53%, TRP is on 33% and RGO is on a lowly 23%. A similar story when looking at P/S - here FS is on 5.4, RGO on 4.0, TRP on 4.7, BW on a punchy 9.8 and TGF on 4.9.

TGF clearly has superior performance with the same valuation metrics and similar vol (4.0% monthly vol compared to 3.7% for FS). In fact it has a marginally better Sharpe ratio (explained by the 23 point performance difference that gets plugged into the numerator).

I'm very happy to keep adding to RGO, but this looks like a solid pick for a FS substitute.

Thanks.
5 users thanked Kraftwerk for this post.
smg8 on 25/11/2021(UTC), Frank Spencer on 26/11/2021(UTC), Zach F on 26/11/2021(UTC), kim shillinglaw on 26/11/2021(UTC), dominic tugal on 27/11/2021(UTC)
smg8
Posted: 26 November 2021 08:07:57(UTC)

Joined: 26/04/2020(UTC)
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Kraftwerk;196773 wrote:
smg8;196695 wrote:
Probably inclined to agree with David, I am a holder of Fundsmith too. Really like the way TS communicates his strategy, far better than pretty much any other fund manager I can think of.

I hold 2 x quality funds, FS and Threadneedle Global Focus. Meanwhile Blackrock Global Unconstrained is one of 2 funds I have half an eye on for an end of year portfolio change.

Comparing the 3 year to date leaves FS trailing way behind (20% FS, 27% Threadneedle, 32% Blackrock). The iShares World Quality Index is up 25%.

As always YTD is meaningless in the grand scheme of things, 18th March to now is similarly meaningless. And TS has a superb unmatched track record, so not a criticism of FS at all (I know there are some hardcore fans amongst us :-D) , not a knee jerk, and not saying I or anyone else should switch.

BUT I do think it's worth looking at what the competition is doing from time to time.....


Great food for thought, smg8. My quality holdings are Rathbone Global Opps and FS, so did some comparisons. I didn't have a chance to look at Blackrock but I did look at Threadneedle.

Rebasing some random picks to a starting price of 100 on 1-Feb-19, I got the following returns through to 25-Nov-21,
- TRP 200
- TGF 193
- RGO 190
- BW 185
- FS 170
- Premier Miton Euro Opps 200 (I have a small, lazy position in this fund and hadn't realised just how well it had done)

In fact if you run this time series from 1-Feb-19 to 10-Nov-21 you get PM Euro Opps at 206 making it 4 points clear of TRP.... and they say you need to own US megacaps to outperform!!!

Diving into the portfolios a bit, the size of the top ten concentration between FS and TGF is quite similar - around 49-50% of the portfolio, BW on 53%, TRP is on 33% and RGO is on a lowly 23%. A similar story when looking at P/S - here FS is on 5.4, RGO on 4.0, TRP on 4.7, BW on a punchy 9.8 and TGF on 4.9.

TGF clearly has superior performance with the same valuation metrics and similar vol (4.0% monthly vol compared to 3.7% for FS). In fact it has a marginally better Sharpe ratio (explained by the 23 point performance difference that gets plugged into the numerator).

I'm very happy to keep adding to RGO, but this looks like a solid pick for a FS substitute.

Thanks.


Thanks for this. I've long admired Premier Miton European Opps, seems a good fund and to be outperforming the FAANG/US Mega Cap heavy funds with zero exposure to that whatsoever is impressive.

The Blackrock fund has pretty much doubled Fundsmith's return in the last year (39% vs 22%) which is quite remarkable. They have a significant advantage in being agile/nimble as a sub £500mn fund. They do also have another big advantage, in so much as the fund launched in Jan 20 and they had a lot of cash that wasn't deployed when the market crashed (I seem to recall them still being really high on cash through Q2 last year) so they will have had the opportunity to deploy cash/get an entry point when stocks have been at very attractive prices. I guess starting a fund with cash when everything is on sale gives you a head start over other funds already holding stuff that drops 20%!

As you mention above the P/S (and P/E) of Fundsmith is now at a point where it is in line with some of the supposed growthier/less defensive quality funds. I wondered out loud earlier in the thread (or perhaps elsewhere) whether Fundsmith "may" become less defensive over time as the stocks it holds become more expensive.

A good example of this is Paypal. I was sometimes surprised to see a stock priced at 70x earnings in the top 10 of a famously valuation conscious manager (though obviously we know TS thinks PE ratio is nonsense and not something he uses to value a business). According to data online Paypals multiple expanded from 33 x earnings to 100 x earnings between 2016 and 2020. Investors are paying for lots of future growth etc, what happens when they miss earnings? We've now seen, it has dropped 28% in 6 months.

I suppose my point is that some of the other "new breed" quality funds that are giving FS a pasting performance wise are taking on no more valuation risk than FS, aren't particularly more volatile than FS, and are relying on the same factor bet as FS. I am asking myself the question of whether the risk/reward ratio for the fund will be as good over the next 5 years as it was over the last 5.
8 users thanked smg8 for this post.
Aletank on 26/11/2021(UTC), Tim D on 26/11/2021(UTC), D Bergman on 26/11/2021(UTC), J-san on 26/11/2021(UTC), Bulldog Drummond on 26/11/2021(UTC), Alan M on 26/11/2021(UTC), dominic tugal on 27/11/2021(UTC), OmegaMale on 27/11/2021(UTC)
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