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npf
Posted: 31 January 2023 12:00:44(UTC)
#795

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I've just moved 5% of the SIPP from RICA to RCP.
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Phil 2 on 31/01/2023(UTC)
mdss68
Posted: 31 January 2023 13:47:00(UTC)
#792

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S Dobbo;255720 wrote:
mdss68;255696 wrote:


I think it may be more prosaic, the family already have "enough", between Hannah, Lord Rothschild & the charity holding, they control 21% or so.

Family controlled Trusts tend to be less keen on DCM, if they issue shares they dilute their own holding, and with that, their control. On the buy back side, they don't much care if they're on a discount and why shrink the Trust to make us barbarians at their gates feel better? No skin of their nose, they don't need the marketing appeal in the same way say CGT do. It's a family office, one we happen to be able to tag along, but it's run for them, then for us (and we pay them for this largesse!)

Bought back at 1986p earlier, it's been a decent entry recently, but it needs to re find it's mojo soon.



All well and good, but I'm not talking about it in a DCM type trade, I mean in a profitable trade. They were doing plenty of buying last year at a much higher price than todays. I'm aware of the family IT philosophy!


What goes on in the manager's head is beyond all of us I'm afraid. I did notice they did some buybacks a while back, was a bit surprised tbh, but presumably they thought it was a trade with value at the time. Beyond that, no idea - maybe drop them a question, you never know?

I'd also add that often here, some of us reply to a wider audience, a few of us have done the "family trust" thing numerous times, but we also have people joining all the time, and imho it's a useful bit of knowledge to have in your armoury, family trusts act a bit differently, and I think it's better if people are at least aware.


Now added a Long @1972p.
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5 users thanked mdss68 for this post.
Newbie on 31/01/2023(UTC), Thrugelmir on 31/01/2023(UTC), S Dobbo on 31/01/2023(UTC), Phil 2 on 31/01/2023(UTC), SF100 on 31/01/2023(UTC)
Thrugelmir
Posted: 31 January 2023 14:23:03(UTC)
#793

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S Dobbo;255720 wrote:



All well and good, but I'm not talking about it in a DCM type trade, I mean in a profitable trade. They were doing plenty of buying last year at a much higher price than todays. I'm aware of the family IT philosophy!


The share bought back were held in Treasury not cancelled. Suggests there was lump sum of cash received that there was no immediate plans for or requirement for. Buying shares back was a better return than earning a measly amount by placing the monies on overnight deposit. Highly possible that some shares were subsequently sold back into the market at a profit. Their corporate broker would have performed this task for them.
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Phil 2 on 31/01/2023(UTC), Low Returns on 31/01/2023(UTC)
Phil 2
Posted: 01 February 2023 08:34:00(UTC)
#799

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Pinch, punch first of the month.

Any guesses what the 31st Dec NAV might look like? Looks like this will be announced Friday ish?

I’m assuming no dramatic change other than maybe a modest uptick compared to the month previous followed by better reading around 15th Feb reflecting the better January across most of its mysterious holdings.

Any reason to expect anything else?
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2 users thanked Phil 2 for this post.
Mr GL on 01/02/2023(UTC), MartynC on 01/02/2023(UTC)
Mr GL
Posted: 01 February 2023 09:55:06(UTC)
#800

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Phil 2;255905 wrote:
Pinch, punch first of the month.

Any guesses what the 31st Dec NAV might look like? Looks like this will be announced Friday ish?

I’m assuming no dramatic change other than maybe a modest uptick compared to the month previous followed by better reading around 15th Feb reflecting the better January across most of its mysterious holdings.

Any reason to expect anything else?



sell the rumour - buy the fact

RCP sold off on the back of a broker report highlighting the growing % of AUM that was made up of private equity (which the year previously had been the major driver of its success) and repeating the concerns that broker has about the delay in PE NAV reporting and the expectation n that NAV's need to fall in line due to the lower multiples seen and to keep in line with the moves in public markets. All of which combined - in their opinion - to make Rit more risky. Sadly the broker should have been banging the drum three years earlier when they were OK owning it at a large premium to NAV and maybe its a bit of the horse has already bolted in terms of needing a discount to provide some reassurance for the supposed higher volatility.

In PE world this year III and OCI have both reported excellent growth in NAVs - because the companies they are invested in have been growing earnings and these have led to higher valuations... the results from APEO a few days ago said the same thing... PE is invested in higher growing companies... and so long as they keep executing on their plan - and so long as the economy is supportive of this growth - then valuations are justified.

Has there been a recession yet? Not as far as I have seen
Have interest rates knocked the underlying companies off their growth trajectory - not as far I I have seen - I spoke with a friend a couple of months ago who works for a PE company and his job if to try and find companies for them to invest in - and he said that the rate rises we have seen were all anticipated in the funding models of the PE investors (ie rates would need to go a lot higher until the investment thesis would be negatively impacted).

PE listed investments are generally decent higher over the last few months.

Growth capital - eg CHRY and GROW are also a long way off their lows from a couple of months ago.

At the same time - moving away from private equity - the appeal of Rit had always been the diversity of its investments - yes PE has grown to be a higher overall percentage (last 41%) but they also have a decent gig in rates, credit, hedge funds etc... they also actively manage overall market beta - this worked very well for beta shorters last year and I have no reason to expect that Rit have lost their skills here.

Oh - and China - which (as I have repeated up thread) they cited in their last NAV - "Chinese domestic funds, recovering from October lows to significantly outperform;'

and if you are following the moves in china (FCSS is up 50%+ over three months) then this should have added a decent positive impulse into their Dec and Jan month end NAVs...

SO - I am expecting an unexciting small positive Dec valuation (maybe some downward moves on PE but decent up moves from China, rates, credit and general positive market beta) and then in a couple of weeks the Jan month end valuation will be a step higher on the back of January's strong upward movements in most sections..

Do I expect Rit to rally 20% to get back to parity with NAV any time soon? absolutely not... I think they have hurt their long term loyal investors... they were trading at a 5% to 10% premium three years ago and now at an almost 20% discount this has been a massive share price underperformance -looking backwards.

looking forwards - for a long term diversified decent low volatility NAV performance at a decent discount it seems good value and should be a good safe long term workhorse for my portfolio... I can't hope to have the same trading fun with it over the next year but I do expect it to continue to do what it says on the tin in terms of its NAV performance.

good luck... following on from small additions by me up to yesterday I have 20% of my AUM in RIT so take all of the above as me talking my own book...
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21 users thanked Mr GL for this post.
Rocca Billy on 01/02/2023(UTC), MartynC on 01/02/2023(UTC), Sheerman on 01/02/2023(UTC), Peter61 on 01/02/2023(UTC), Guest on 01/02/2023(UTC), Steve U on 01/02/2023(UTC), bill xxxx on 01/02/2023(UTC), PH . on 01/02/2023(UTC), Strangways on 01/02/2023(UTC), Phil 2 on 01/02/2023(UTC), MSB on 01/02/2023(UTC), Johan De Silva on 01/02/2023(UTC), cliff aner on 01/02/2023(UTC), Newbie on 01/02/2023(UTC), SSJ on 01/02/2023(UTC), SF100 on 01/02/2023(UTC), lindsay Morrison2 on 01/02/2023(UTC), LondonYank84 on 01/02/2023(UTC), Low Returns on 01/02/2023(UTC), William P on 06/02/2023(UTC), Auric on 12/02/2023(UTC)
Thrugelmir
Posted: 01 February 2023 10:35:08(UTC)
#801

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Mr GL;255917 wrote:
PE is invested in higher growing companies.....


That's a broad generalisation. PE companies are no different to public companies. There'll be winners and losers. Only the future not the past will determine that.
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S Dobbo on 01/02/2023(UTC)
Mr GL
Posted: 01 February 2023 10:41:06(UTC)
#802

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Thrugelmir;255922 wrote:
Mr GL;255917 wrote:
PE is invested in higher growing companies.....


That's a broad generalisation. PE companies are no different to public companies. There'll be winners and losers. Only the future not the past will determine that.


YODA: "Only a Sith deals in absolutes"

https://seekingalpha.com...rn-from-yoda-jedi-master
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4 users thanked Mr GL for this post.
Johan De Silva on 01/02/2023(UTC), Phil 2 on 01/02/2023(UTC), mdss68 on 01/02/2023(UTC), Auric on 12/02/2023(UTC)
npf
Posted: 01 February 2023 11:23:32(UTC)
#796

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npf;255794 wrote:
I've just moved 5% of the SIPP from RICA to RCP.


And another 5% today, also from selling RICA
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2 users thanked npf for this post.
Phil 2 on 01/02/2023(UTC), MartynC on 01/02/2023(UTC)
Steve U
Posted: 01 February 2023 11:48:10(UTC)
#803

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there's going to be quite a few disappointed investors on here if we don't see a RCP improvement in the coming weeks - including me, where following my seeemingly easy £6k profit a few weeks ago, I bought back in with 12k units last week.
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Phil 2 on 01/02/2023(UTC)
Johan De Silva
Posted: 01 February 2023 11:54:31(UTC)
#807

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As well as China up (EM 16%) there should be a currency tailwind as USD currency exposure is only 26%.

(I don't hold having bought and sold - I would prefer to wait a bit longer for sentiment to change and then pick a bottom but I was tempted today as RCP had fallen more than most from the high more than any other stock)
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2 users thanked Johan De Silva for this post.
lindsay Morrison2 on 01/02/2023(UTC), Low Returns on 01/02/2023(UTC)
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