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Bank of Georgia
Johan De Silva
Posted: 19 February 2024 13:54:57(UTC)
#12

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@newbie - yes I agree it would tank. But it won't be a total wipeout.

@Andrew - Not sure about the extent of the oil money flows, but many rich Russian citizens have moved there to get away from Putin.

Edit: I have sold some but charts show that this news is positive and could break upwards.
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Newbie on 19/02/2024(UTC)
Johan De Silva
Posted: 24 February 2024 10:56:35(UTC)
#13

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BGEO breakout was wonderful. Selling the remainder on Monday...

Will be buying STB (Secure Trust Bank Plc) as the balance sheet looks excellent, it is also a real small-cap value play. When you can get excellent value (superb dividend cover and a high dividend) without any geopolitical risk it has to be an option even if STB has gone up significantly. I have been waiting for dip for about a year and don't see one until the first rate cut.... and we don't know when that will be.

Generally, the banks are cheap, the smaller ones have outstanding value and no lack of revenue growth given the higher rates.
John Bran
Posted: 24 February 2024 16:17:41(UTC)
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ANDREW FOSTER;296824 wrote:

I have read (though have no opinion) that Bank of Gerorgia is doing well because Russian money is pouring into it out of sanctioned Russian institutions.

Its being used as an intermediary for Russian oil and gas trading.

It's steady climb began in...early 2022 so it would fit that narrative, though no idea if it is true.

If that is indeed the case then any upside could possibly be suddenly terminated if it were to have Western sanctions suddenly applied to it.

The good news could unwind as that money/business is frozen or moves off elsewhere.

When Russia invaded the Ukraine a very large amount of Russians Belarusian and some Ukrainian moved to Georgia transferring there Euros and dollars to Georgian banks. Mainly talking about entrepreneurs in the tech sectors who continued to work from Georgia.
Theses people are yet to move back and of course they may never do.
Also russian continue to use Georgia as a holiday destination.
As an aside the European bank of reconstruction and talking bollocks said the invasion would result in a recession in Georgia... economic growth rose from the normal 6% to 10%.
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ANDREW FOSTER on 24/02/2024(UTC)
John Bran
Posted: 24 February 2024 16:30:59(UTC)
#14

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A bit of a sick note for me as I sold both Bank of Georgia and Georgia capital because I believed the lari would eventually fall.
Sold Bgeo for 119% profit and 9.9% dividend after about 9 months.
Sold CGEO for about 50% profit.
I am fairly certain that I didn't loose out on Bgeo sale as I bought 3i with the money, the opposite true with Georgia capital.
The currency never fell in fact the lari is considered to be one of the 10 strongest currencies in the world.
Probably because base rates are still at 9.5%, despite inflation being 0% I will say that again ZERO PERCENT!.
I have given up and started buying Georgia capital again. It owns a fair bit of Bank of Georgia so won't bother with them.
Discount to NAV is around 60%.
I like there plan reduce debt to zero and start paying a dividend. The latter is more of rumour the former less so.
They have a put option on the remaining 20% of the water company they sold. That would pay of all the debt.
John Bran
Posted: 24 February 2024 16:40:56(UTC)
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Georgia capital invests in
Bank of Georgia (which it was spun out of)
Insurance company
Electricity hydro and wind
Hospitals
Pharmacies
Education
Wine. All but the latter could be classed as defensive.
Also the share has only just reached it previous 5 year peak. Despite constant increases in profits and nav.

https://theoakbloke.subs...mail-half-magic-comments
John Bran
Posted: 24 February 2024 16:42:50(UTC)
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I just remembered they own a bank in Belarus. So not like they haven't bought foreign bank before.
John Bran
Posted: 01 March 2024 22:41:05(UTC)
#17

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Both london listed Georgian banks up 5% today.
Not spotted anything on the rns
The blur
Posted: 12 March 2024 14:38:52(UTC)
#18

Joined: 10/10/2020(UTC)
Posts: 45

I'm up around 34% on my investment since Jan this year so pretty good returns to be honest!.

I'm not 100% convinced that Russian money being filtered into the bank and sanctions are on way though.

It's a hold for time being then maybe sell middle of this year, or hold and look for the 8,000 point that FT hinted could be by end of year.

Still it's definitely something I'm keeping a eye on
John Bran
Posted: 20 April 2024 11:03:20(UTC)
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I am continuing to add to Georgia Capital. Anytime I get a dividend from my bond proxys I look for something cheap. Monday it will probably be a bit more Georgia Capital as its down a bit at the moment.
Georgia capital recently had to refinance its debt at a higher interest rate.
But total interest payments is much lower as they didn't need to replace all of it.
I believe there is plan is to deleverage in 2-3 years time and start to pay a dividend.
Listing there assets seems unlikely.
The hospitals were on the UK stockmarket at one time but were bought back by CGEO. Basically profits rising share price falling. Assets in Georgia are of interest to other companies, multi national companies but that's it.
Worth noting they have sold individual hospitals off, no idea who the buyers were.
The pharmacies are expanding into neighbouring countries.
They did sell the water company to a multinational company and retained 20% with a put option to sell in I think 2 years time.
Getting rid of all companies where they don't believe they can grow them sufficiently to be of interest to a multinational.

Politics are problem or not. Depending on your views.
The party in power appears pro Russian. But wants to join the EU.
Some MP are clearly very pro Russian but I think the party (the Dream party!) is merely trying to avoid conflict. It appears to be still controlled by an ex Russian oligarch (from Georgia originally). He claims to have left Politics completely but his mobile was intercepted with him recorded talking to another Russian oligarch saying he could get the Georgian prime minister to agree to a business they were going to set up.
Basically anything i say goes.
I believe the risk reward here favours a buy. I sold in the past on the assumption of a fall in the lari. It's unlikely to fall that much that it will counter the discount.
Russia is now much weaker invading Georgia again seems unlikely. The neighbouring countries all look ripe for economic growth this looks like the best way in.

Worth starting a separate thread for CGEO?
John Bran
Posted: 20 April 2024 11:10:48(UTC)
#20

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If I recall correctly base rates are still a staggering 9.5% in Georgia and inflation is staggering zero %?
Very Conservative in there views on dealing with inflation. Specially as the target is 3% not 2%.
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