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Big boy;305276 wrote:Raj K;305261 wrote:i dont hold it as an indivdual stock but FYI one of the funds i like does hold it and in their 2023 annual report released early this year they said the following about Tesco.
Tesco returned +35% in 2023. Principally this was a much overdue reflection of the improved quality of the business, as the turnaround is complete, and the business is back on its throne as market leader. Compounding this strength, is the continued weakness of the competition. Most notably Asda and Morrisons are struggling under the debt burdens of their private equity buyouts, and do not have the financial flexibility to invest or fight for competitiveness by lowering prices.3 Indeed, for the first time in many years Tesco has been underinflating the market, thus compounding its position as the best value for money. This reinvestment of potential profits in lower prices creates a strong fly wheel effect, driving more customers into the stores, and higher volumes. Their market share, which had been falling for a decade, has seen a strong recovery in the past two years, which we believe is likely to continue as Asda and Morrisons cede share. Given the high fixed cost nature of the supermarket business, it’s critical to see sales densities and asset utilisation moving higher, and this has a geared impact on future returns. Other points to note are the likely sale of Tesco Bank, which should raise c.£1bn which we expect to be used to buy back shares in the company, complimenting the 4% dividend yield. At 12x PE (compared to international peers such as Walmart which trade on 24x) the stock remains an undiscovered jewel in the FTSE’s crown. So are they fully valued or undervalued based on to-days info which all Global Investors know...Presume they are all in and who will buy them now after a 27% rise. These fund managers use discounted cash flows and an understanding of the business and industry to guage what the likely return will be. They then incorporate a margin of safety incase they are wrong. I have no clue if Tesco are undervalued or overvalued and the 27% price rise already is really irrelevant. Your strategy is totally different to my idea of investing so i am unable to answer the particular quesiton :) Id have to study Tesco , the industry and understand what cash its producing and is it likely to continue and grow :) History has shown us that there are times when global investors dont know how to price a stock and instead it is priced on short term news and panic. For example, Apple, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Microsoft, Google. All have gone through periods of turbulance and global investors got it wrong. Thats why understanding the business is important when trying to value the business much like one would do if you were personally buying a bricks and mortat business from someone else. Stock market is no different its the ownership in a business. Sorry maybe someone else will chime in to state if Tesco is undervalued or overvalued based on SP changes or other technical indicators. I haven't study that area :(
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