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TESCO - HOLD or SELL
William P
Posted: 10 May 2024 10:21:37(UTC)
#1

Joined: 18/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 295

I bought 10,000 Tesco shares on 12 July 2021 for a total cost including fees etc of £23,526, so a cost of £2.35 per share.

I clicked the button for automatic dividend reinvestment.

I noticed the shares are at a 52 week high and indeed a multi year high looking at a chart going back 5 years.

My holding with dividend reinvested is now worth £34,326, a 46% increase from purchase cost, so quite alright.

I am thinking of selling, but part of me thinks I should hold on for a little bit more!

Holding on for more in the past in other stocks has at times proved not to work out for me.

Do any of you hold Tesco and are you minded to sell or hold?

Many thanks
Raj K
Posted: 10 May 2024 10:33:03(UTC)
#2

Joined: 22/04/2016(UTC)
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i dont hold it as an indivdual stock but FYI one of the funds i like does hold it and in their 2023 annual report released early this year they said the following about Tesco.

Tesco returned +35% in 2023. Principally this was a much overdue reflection of the improved quality of the business, as the turnaround is complete, and the business is back on its throne as market leader. Compounding this strength, is the continued weakness of the competition. Most notably Asda and Morrisons are struggling under the debt burdens of their private equity buyouts, and do not have the financial flexibility to invest or fight for competitiveness by lowering prices.3 Indeed, for the first time in many years Tesco has been underinflating the market, thus compounding its position as the best value for money. This reinvestment of potential profits in lower prices creates a strong fly wheel effect, driving more customers into the stores, and higher volumes. Their market share, which had been falling for a decade, has seen a strong recovery in the past two years, which we believe is likely to continue as Asda and Morrisons cede share. Given the high fixed cost nature of the supermarket business, it’s critical to see sales densities and asset utilisation moving higher, and this has a geared impact on future returns. Other points to note are the likely sale of Tesco Bank, which should raise c.£1bn which we expect to be used to buy back shares in the company, complimenting the 4% dividend yield. At 12x PE (compared to international peers such as Walmart which trade on 24x) the stock remains an undiscovered jewel in the FTSE’s crown.
7 users thanked Raj K for this post.
Sheerman on 10/05/2024(UTC), Law Man on 10/05/2024(UTC), William P on 10/05/2024(UTC), Phil 2 on 11/05/2024(UTC), Tom Davis on 11/05/2024(UTC), Cash Zero Return on 12/05/2024(UTC), LongJohn on 12/05/2024(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 10 May 2024 12:32:52(UTC)
#5

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
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William P;305259 wrote:
I bought 10,000 Tesco shares on 12 July 2021 for a total cost including fees etc of £23,526, so a cost of £2.35 per share.

I clicked the button for automatic dividend reinvestment.

I noticed the shares are at a 52 week high and indeed a multi year high looking at a chart going back 5 years.

My holding with dividend reinvested is now worth £34,326, a 46% increase from purchase cost, so quite alright.

I am thinking of selling, but part of me thinks I should hold on for a little bit more!

Holding on for more in the past in other stocks has at times proved not to work out for me.

Do any of you hold Tesco and are you minded to sell or hold?

Many thanks


Presume you bought them on the bases that they were cheap/undervalued. Using same method how do you rate them.

Remember to-days SP is a correct valuation by all the Global Investors.

I personally do not deal in direct equities as I regard it as gambling/speculating.
2 users thanked Big boy for this post.
William P on 10/05/2024(UTC), LongJohn on 12/05/2024(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 10 May 2024 12:39:12(UTC)
#3

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
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Raj K;305261 wrote:
i dont hold it as an indivdual stock but FYI one of the funds i like does hold it and in their 2023 annual report released early this year they said the following about Tesco.

Tesco returned +35% in 2023. Principally this was a much overdue reflection of the improved quality of the business, as the turnaround is complete, and the business is back on its throne as market leader. Compounding this strength, is the continued weakness of the competition. Most notably Asda and Morrisons are struggling under the debt burdens of their private equity buyouts, and do not have the financial flexibility to invest or fight for competitiveness by lowering prices.3 Indeed, for the first time in many years Tesco has been underinflating the market, thus compounding its position as the best value for money. This reinvestment of potential profits in lower prices creates a strong fly wheel effect, driving more customers into the stores, and higher volumes. Their market share, which had been falling for a decade, has seen a strong recovery in the past two years, which we believe is likely to continue as Asda and Morrisons cede share. Given the high fixed cost nature of the supermarket business, it’s critical to see sales densities and asset utilisation moving higher, and this has a geared impact on future returns. Other points to note are the likely sale of Tesco Bank, which should raise c.£1bn which we expect to be used to buy back shares in the company, complimenting the 4% dividend yield. At 12x PE (compared to international peers such as Walmart which trade on 24x) the stock remains an undiscovered jewel in the FTSE’s crown.


So are they fully valued or undervalued based on to-days info which all Global Investors know...Presume they are all in and who will buy them now after a 27% rise.
3 users thanked Big boy for this post.
Raj K on 10/05/2024(UTC), William P on 10/05/2024(UTC), LongJohn on 12/05/2024(UTC)
Raj K
Posted: 10 May 2024 13:00:36(UTC)
#4

Joined: 22/04/2016(UTC)
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Big boy;305276 wrote:
Raj K;305261 wrote:
i dont hold it as an indivdual stock but FYI one of the funds i like does hold it and in their 2023 annual report released early this year they said the following about Tesco.

Tesco returned +35% in 2023. Principally this was a much overdue reflection of the improved quality of the business, as the turnaround is complete, and the business is back on its throne as market leader. Compounding this strength, is the continued weakness of the competition. Most notably Asda and Morrisons are struggling under the debt burdens of their private equity buyouts, and do not have the financial flexibility to invest or fight for competitiveness by lowering prices.3 Indeed, for the first time in many years Tesco has been underinflating the market, thus compounding its position as the best value for money. This reinvestment of potential profits in lower prices creates a strong fly wheel effect, driving more customers into the stores, and higher volumes. Their market share, which had been falling for a decade, has seen a strong recovery in the past two years, which we believe is likely to continue as Asda and Morrisons cede share. Given the high fixed cost nature of the supermarket business, it’s critical to see sales densities and asset utilisation moving higher, and this has a geared impact on future returns. Other points to note are the likely sale of Tesco Bank, which should raise c.£1bn which we expect to be used to buy back shares in the company, complimenting the 4% dividend yield. At 12x PE (compared to international peers such as Walmart which trade on 24x) the stock remains an undiscovered jewel in the FTSE’s crown.


So are they fully valued or undervalued based on to-days info which all Global Investors know...Presume they are all in and who will buy them now after a 27% rise.


These fund managers use discounted cash flows and an understanding of the business and industry to guage what the likely return will be. They then incorporate a margin of safety incase they are wrong. I have no clue if Tesco are undervalued or overvalued and the 27% price rise already is really irrelevant. Your strategy is totally different to my idea of investing so i am unable to answer the particular quesiton :) Id have to study Tesco , the industry and understand what cash its producing and is it likely to continue and grow :)

History has shown us that there are times when global investors dont know how to price a stock and instead it is priced on short term news and panic. For example, Apple, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Microsoft, Google. All have gone through periods of turbulance and global investors got it wrong. Thats why understanding the business is important when trying to value the business much like one would do if you were personally buying a bricks and mortat business from someone else. Stock market is no different its the ownership in a business.

Sorry maybe someone else will chime in to state if Tesco is undervalued or overvalued based on SP changes or other technical indicators. I haven't study that area :(
2 users thanked Raj K for this post.
William P on 10/05/2024(UTC), Grez on 11/05/2024(UTC)
Johan De Silva
Posted: 10 May 2024 13:58:54(UTC)
#6

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Big boy;305275 wrote:
Remember to-days SP is a correct valuation by all the Global Investors.

Yes but lets test this. I've mentioned Action in the PE thread and news that the lower earning consumer is struggling and that companies are less able to pass inflation onto these consumers. This is new news out this weeks earnings of companies like McDonalds. . Based on this I don't think Tesco is worth a P/E of 12 and better off with M&S on a P/E of 14. You could argue the P/E reflects this already...doh!
3 users thanked Johan De Silva for this post.
MartynC on 10/05/2024(UTC), William P on 10/05/2024(UTC), LongJohn on 12/05/2024(UTC)
Oldtime Investor
Posted: 10 May 2024 14:00:36(UTC)
#14

Joined: 12/01/2012(UTC)
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5 year High? Well..
Just grabbing a date from old records:

12/3/2011
Tesco price £39.173
My Dividends 2011/12 £1,402 (on a holding of 8,604 shares

Today 10/5/24
Tesco price £31.18
My dividends 2023/24 £946 on a holding of 8,649 shares

I shall sit & wait for 2011 to recur.

The real value is in there, somewhere.
3 users thanked Oldtime Investor for this post.
William P on 10/05/2024(UTC), Grez on 11/05/2024(UTC), LongJohn on 12/05/2024(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 10 May 2024 16:11:42(UTC)
#7

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
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Johan De Silva;305286 wrote:
Big boy;305275 wrote:
Remember to-days SP is a correct valuation by all the Global Investors.

Yes but lets test this. I've mentioned Action in the PE thread and news that the lower earning consumer is struggling and that companies are less able to pass inflation onto these consumers. This is new news out this weeks earnings of companies like McDonalds. . Based on this I don't think Tesco is worth a P/E of 12 and better off with M&S on a P/E of 14. You could argue the P/E reflects this already...doh!


Clearly we have seen net buying but once all the FMs have finished buying what happens to the inflated share price. It’s no good having the best Company in the World but at the wrong price. Also who buys when 99% of investors hold.

It’s doesn't matter about interest rates or fundamentals.
3 users thanked Big boy for this post.
Johan De Silva on 10/05/2024(UTC), William P on 10/05/2024(UTC), LongJohn on 12/05/2024(UTC)
Raj K
Posted: 10 May 2024 16:28:35(UTC)
#8

Joined: 22/04/2016(UTC)
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Was thanked: 6651 time(s) in 2090 post(s)
Big boy;305339 wrote:
Johan De Silva;305286 wrote:
Big boy;305275 wrote:
Remember to-days SP is a correct valuation by all the Global Investors.

Yes but lets test this. I've mentioned Action in the PE thread and news that the lower earning consumer is struggling and that companies are less able to pass inflation onto these consumers. This is new news out this weeks earnings of companies like McDonalds. . Based on this I don't think Tesco is worth a P/E of 12 and better off with M&S on a P/E of 14. You could argue the P/E reflects this already...doh!


Clearly we have seen net buying but once all the FMs have finished buying what happens to the inflated share price. It’s no good having the best Company in the World but at the wrong price. Also who buys when 99% of investors hold.

It’s doesn't matter about interest rates or fundamentals.



if you were interested in buying the local fish and chip business how would you work out what a good price is to pay for it. Somewhere at a very basic level you will need to look at how much cash the thing produces and is it likely to continue. Why is it ok to ignore fundamentals of a business becuase it is listed and has a daily price?

i get your IT thing using the NAV as the refrence marker for value but how do you do that with an indivdual stock if you ignore the fundamentals entirely ? No book value, no free cash flow?
2 users thanked Raj K for this post.
William P on 10/05/2024(UTC), Grez on 11/05/2024(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 10 May 2024 20:12:27(UTC)
#9

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
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Raj K;305341 wrote:
Big boy;305339 wrote:
Johan De Silva;305286 wrote:
Big boy;305275 wrote:
Remember to-days SP is a correct valuation by all the Global Investors.

Yes but lets test this. I've mentioned Action in the PE thread and news that the lower earning consumer is struggling and that companies are less able to pass inflation onto these consumers. This is new news out this weeks earnings of companies like McDonalds. . Based on this I don't think Tesco is worth a P/E of 12 and better off with M&S on a P/E of 14. You could argue the P/E reflects this already...doh!


Clearly we have seen net buying but once all the FMs have finished buying what happens to the inflated share price. It’s no good having the best Company in the World but at the wrong price. Also who buys when 99% of investors hold.

It’s doesn't matter about interest rates or fundamentals.



if you were interested in buying the local fish and chip business how would you work out what a good price is to pay for it. Somewhere at a very basic level you will need to look at how much cash the thing produces and is it likely to continue. Why is it ok to ignore fundamentals of a business becuase it is listed and has a daily price?

i get your IT thing using the NAV as the refrence marker for value but how do you do that with an indivdual stock if you ignore the fundamentals entirely ? No book value, no free cash flow?



I simply let the Global investors work out the correct price for the fish and chip shop. They will identify the best but will overpay.
Remember FMs will go into great detail and understanding the F&C shops and then decide the correct SP.

We all appreciate that most FMs have difficulty in adding value compared with other FMs and not sure any PI will be able to add any value.




1 user thanked Big boy for this post.
William P on 10/05/2024(UTC)
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