Funds Insider - Opening the door to funds

Welcome to the Citywire Funds Insider Forums, where members share investment ideas and discuss everything to do with their money.

You'll need to log in or set up an account to start new discussions or reply to existing ones. See you inside!

Notification

Icon
Error
The 2025 multi-asset outlook
+ Reply to discussion
Options
Mike ...
Posted: 26 January 2025 13:34:45(UTC)
#27

Joined: 16/03/2023(UTC)
Posts: 39
If an investor was swayed in to changing their asset allocation on the back of an opinion piece the question is more what thought have they put in to their risk profile in the first place?
Back to top Quote
Jed Mires
Posted: 26 January 2025 13:48:05(UTC)
#28

Joined: 04/04/2023(UTC)
Posts: 338

Thanks: 317 times
Was thanked: 635 time(s) in 225 post(s)
The article is typical fare from the financial services industry. It doesn't have much value, the could have summed the whole article up in one sentence, bonds are cheaper and equities are more expensive. A typical investor would be 100% equities when young and then include some fixed income when older.
Back to top Quote
 |  Edit by user
1 user thanked Jed Mires for this post.
Special Kloud on 26/01/2025(UTC)
You have to change your life
Posted: 26 January 2025 15:07:11(UTC)
#29

Joined: 17/11/2021(UTC)
Posts: 2,194
As a rule, there is no disinterested financial commentary. That applies to all posts on here and doubly for reports commissioned by financial institutions. The aim is not to convert but to reinforce choices made for the target audience: confirmation bias. Seen more clearly in the realm of politics.
Back to top Quote
ben ski
Posted: 26 January 2025 16:08:31(UTC)
#17

Joined: 15/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 1,357

Thanks: 426 times
Was thanked: 3900 time(s) in 1014 post(s)
ANDREW FOSTER;332251 wrote:
ben ski;332236 wrote:
I would note we've just had a phase (2022), where valuations mattered – in bonds. I'm skeptical of people who claim to have sold out of bonds just before the crash – only because, if you were looking at yields, you'd have sold out in 2014/15 ... And it didn't matter being 8 years too early, because you'd have done well in almost anything (with rates that low – everything rises).



Personally I sold out of bonds before the crash. I made comments to this effect in the transactions thread and the reasoning behind it. It wasn't based on yields at the time it was based on forecasts of inflation and rate rises. Which were the canary in the mine for anyone willing to listen.

I didn't have bonds in 2014/15, as I was still in accumulation and 100% equities.

What is there to be skeptical about?


Skeptical about every aspect of that decision. If you say it was on rate and inflation forecasts, they were forecasts to rise every year from 2009 to 2020. So why not any of those years? They also didn't call 2022, until rates were already moving. So if you'd sold out in 2021 or early 2022, those were about the only times in a decade the indicators wouldn't have told you to. It just doesn't add up. Even that you'd use forecasts as a timing tool, as we know they're always wrong. Why you'd start buying bonds between 2014 and 2022, when they offered no value.
Back to top Quote
 |  Edit by user
2 users thanked ben ski for this post.
Rookie Investor on 26/01/2025(UTC), SF100 on 26/01/2025(UTC)
Rookie Investor
Posted: 26 January 2025 16:35:36(UTC)
#30

Joined: 09/12/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,081

Thanks: 1341 times
Was thanked: 3627 time(s) in 1413 post(s)
Would agree with ben ski.

It does seem strange that Andrew was long bonds prior to 2022, when anyone who did know a thing or two about bonds could see they offered no value for some years, and suddenly got out prior to the inflation led spike to yields in 2022.

That call should have made well before 2021, when bonds offered little yield and there were opportune times to load up on equities (2015/2016 for example) - and produce much better returns.

Andrew does strike me as someone very sure of himself with conviction, yet from the limited discussions on this forum, has got some things badly wrong (e.g. GBPUSD). It is a dangerous way of thinking and at what cost?
Back to top Quote
2 users thanked Rookie Investor for this post.
ben ski on 26/01/2025(UTC), SF100 on 26/01/2025(UTC)
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 26 January 2025 16:44:59(UTC)
#18

Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 8,103
ben ski;332270 wrote:
ANDREW FOSTER;332251 wrote:
ben ski;332236 wrote:
I would note we've just had a phase (2022), where valuations mattered – in bonds. I'm skeptical of people who claim to have sold out of bonds just before the crash – only because, if you were looking at yields, you'd have sold out in 2014/15 ... And it didn't matter being 8 years too early, because you'd have done well in almost anything (with rates that low – everything rises).



Personally I sold out of bonds before the crash. I made comments to this effect in the transactions thread and the reasoning behind it. It wasn't based on yields at the time it was based on forecasts of inflation and rate rises. Which were the canary in the mine for anyone willing to listen.

I didn't have bonds in 2014/15, as I was still in accumulation and 100% equities.

What is there to be skeptical about?


Skeptical about every aspect of that decision. If you say it was on rate and inflation forecasts, they were forecasts to rise every year from 2009 to 2020. So why not any of those years? They also didn't call 2022, until rates were already moving. So if you'd sold out in 2021 or early 2022, those were about the only times in a decade the indicators wouldn't have told you to. It just doesn't add up. Even that you'd use forecasts as a timing tool, as we know they're always wrong. Why you'd start buying bonds between 2014 and 2022, when they offered no value.



No, base rate and infaltion rates were NOT forecast to rise every year between 2009 and 2020, that's just rot.

Inflation was, however, shooting rapidly upward from late 2021 and stoked further by the energy price rises after the war started in 2022. And the predictions WERE broadly correct.

Base rate were inevitably going to follow upward to try to dampen that inflation. As they did. It was writ large.

But it didn't happen in one giant, sudden step, it happened over about 6 months, creating a window to either react (which I and others did) or sit on your hands whistling and chanting 'only noobs sell'.

I switched initially into MMF's and mighty glad I did. And now, recently, I've been switching into Corporate Bonds, ready for the slow reduction of those Rate Rises at some points over the next two years.

" if you were looking at yields"

I don't look at yields. It's too late then. Look at inflation and base rate forecasts and apply some gray matter....
Back to top Quote
Rookie Investor
Posted: 26 January 2025 16:56:22(UTC)
#22

Joined: 09/12/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,081

Thanks: 1341 times
Was thanked: 3627 time(s) in 1413 post(s)
ANDREW FOSTER;332275 wrote:
ben ski;332270 wrote:
ANDREW FOSTER;332251 wrote:
ben ski;332236 wrote:
I would note we've just had a phase (2022), where valuations mattered – in bonds. I'm skeptical of people who claim to have sold out of bonds just before the crash – only because, if you were looking at yields, you'd have sold out in 2014/15 ... And it didn't matter being 8 years too early, because you'd have done well in almost anything (with rates that low – everything rises).



Personally I sold out of bonds before the crash. I made comments to this effect in the transactions thread and the reasoning behind it. It wasn't based on yields at the time it was based on forecasts of inflation and rate rises. Which were the canary in the mine for anyone willing to listen.

I didn't have bonds in 2014/15, as I was still in accumulation and 100% equities.

What is there to be skeptical about?


Skeptical about every aspect of that decision. If you say it was on rate and inflation forecasts, they were forecasts to rise every year from 2009 to 2020. So why not any of those years? They also didn't call 2022, until rates were already moving. So if you'd sold out in 2021 or early 2022, those were about the only times in a decade the indicators wouldn't have told you to. It just doesn't add up. Even that you'd use forecasts as a timing tool, as we know they're always wrong. Why you'd start buying bonds between 2014 and 2022, when they offered no value.



No, base rate and infaltion rates were NOT forecast to rise every year between 2009 and 2020, that's just rot.

Inflation was, however, shooting rapidly upward from late 2021 and stoked further by the energy price rises after the war started in 2022. And the predictions WERE broadly correct.

Base rate were inevitably going to follow upward to try to dampen that inflation. As they did. It was writ large.

But it didn't happen in one giant, sudden step, it happened over about 6 months, creating a window to either react (which I and others did) or sit on your hands whistling and chanting 'only noobs sell'.

I switched initially into MMF's and mighty glad I did. And now, recently, I've been switching into Corporate Bonds, ready for the slow reduction of those Rate Rises at some points over the next two years.

" if you were looking at yields"

I don't look at yields. It's too late then. Look at inflation and base rate forecasts and apply some gray matter....




Why on earth would you need to look at inflation or other such nonsense to tell you bonds were uninvestible in 2021/22? It had been uninvestible for a number of years and particularly during covid. Simply by looking at the yield on offer.

I was never in bonds, except 0 duration cash, up until last year.
Back to top Quote
3 users thanked Rookie Investor for this post.
Thrugelmir on 26/01/2025(UTC), ben ski on 26/01/2025(UTC), SF100 on 26/01/2025(UTC)
Peanuts
Posted: 26 January 2025 17:10:28(UTC)
#31

Joined: 16/02/2019(UTC)
Posts: 1,476

Thanks: 2446 times
Was thanked: 2394 time(s) in 919 post(s)
I'm not sure if this guy (Bob Elliot) is a grifter or not but was listening to bits of this in the background today and found the section on bonds and particularly the bit about TIPS interesting. The vid is below is pinned at the TIPS comments...

https://youtu.be/3OLs7I8eP0U?t=4083
Back to top Quote
2 users thanked Peanuts for this post.
Rob B on 26/01/2025(UTC), Jed Mires on 26/01/2025(UTC)
Thrugelmir
Posted: 26 January 2025 17:22:04(UTC)
#20

Joined: 01/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 5,317

Thanks: 3255 times
Was thanked: 7876 time(s) in 3263 post(s)
ANDREW FOSTER;332275 wrote:
ben ski;332270 wrote:
ANDREW FOSTER;332251 wrote:
ben ski;332236 wrote:
I would note we've just had a phase (2022), where valuations mattered – in bonds. I'm skeptical of people who claim to have sold out of bonds just before the crash – only because, if you were looking at yields, you'd have sold out in 2014/15 ... And it didn't matter being 8 years too early, because you'd have done well in almost anything (with rates that low – everything rises).



Personally I sold out of bonds before the crash. I made comments to this effect in the transactions thread and the reasoning behind it. It wasn't based on yields at the time it was based on forecasts of inflation and rate rises. Which were the canary in the mine for anyone willing to listen.

I didn't have bonds in 2014/15, as I was still in accumulation and 100% equities.

What is there to be skeptical about?


Skeptical about every aspect of that decision. If you say it was on rate and inflation forecasts, they were forecasts to rise every year from 2009 to 2020. So why not any of those years? They also didn't call 2022, until rates were already moving. So if you'd sold out in 2021 or early 2022, those were about the only times in a decade the indicators wouldn't have told you to. It just doesn't add up. Even that you'd use forecasts as a timing tool, as we know they're always wrong. Why you'd start buying bonds between 2014 and 2022, when they offered no value.



No, base rate and infaltion rates were NOT forecast to rise every year between 2009 and 2020, that's just rot.






A reminder of historical events......... 2018 appeared as if normality would return slowly. Then Covid stepped in. Then the Ukraine war.

07 Nov 24 4.75
01 Aug 24 5.00
03 Aug 23 5.25
22 Jun 23 5.00
11 May 23 4.50
23 Mar 23 4.25
02 Feb 23 4.00
15 Dec 22 3.50
03 Nov 22 3.00
22 Sep 22 2.25
04 Aug 22 1.75
16 Jun 22 1.25
05 May 22 1.00
17 Mar 22 0.75
03 Feb 22 0.50
16 Dec 21 0.25
19 Mar 20 0.10
11 Mar 20 0.25
02 Aug 18 0.75
02 Nov 17 0.50
04 Aug 16 0.25
05 Mar 09 0.50
05 Feb 09 1.00
08 Jan 09 1.50
04 Dec 08 2.00
06 Nov 08 3.00
08 Oct 08 4.50
10 Apr 08 5.00
07 Feb 08 5.25
06 Dec 07 5.50
05 Jul 07 5.75
Back to top Quote
2 users thanked Thrugelmir for this post.
SF100 on 26/01/2025(UTC), Peanuts on 26/01/2025(UTC)
Rob B
Posted: 26 January 2025 17:38:02(UTC)
#32

Joined: 07/10/2018(UTC)
Posts: 1,701

Thanks: 3431 times
Was thanked: 6745 time(s) in 1429 post(s)
Peanuts;332277 wrote:
I'm not sure if this guy (Bob Elliot) is a grifter or not but was listening to bits of this in the background today and found the section on bonds and particularly the bit about TIPS interesting. The vid is below is pinned at the TIPS comments...

https://youtu.be/3OLs7I8eP0U?t=4083

Bob (as I'm sure you know) was the former head of of Ray Dalio’s investment team at Bridgewater Associates (aka his right hand man). Was pushed out from Bridgewater for a little 'extra curricular' activity.
Always has something interesting to say whether you believe it or not.
Back to top Quote
1 user thanked Rob B for this post.
Peanuts on 26/01/2025(UTC)
4 PagesPrevious page1234Next page
+ Reply to discussion

Markets

Other markets